Following a solid run on my NFL total picks during the middle of the season things have gone downhill recently. I was able to claim at least one win in each of the previous three weeks, but last week was the big goose egg. Yep, I missed them all and I’m certainly not proud of it. You would think betting the over/under would be much easier than it actually is. It’s almost like flipping a coin and in Week 14 the coin flip probably would’ve gotten me better results.
Going 0-3 last week and 4-8 over the last four weekends has ruined my season winning percentage. I’m still above .500 but things looked much better following my perfect Week 10 that gave me an 11-4 record during a five-week span. It just goes to show you that success at the betting window comes and goes and the house has its days too. Seven of the 13 Week 14 games cashed the OVER. It’s the first time in three weeks a majority of the games finished above the total and just the fourth time that’s happened all season.
I won’t bore you with the ugly details, but when the Broncos score 28 points and I’m backing the UNDER, things aren’t going to end well. KC and Denver combined for 62 points making it the second highest scoring game of the week. I also backed the UNDER in the game with the most combined points. Philly hammered the Giants 48-22 going over the total of 44.5 in the third quarter. And just to put a topper on the wasted week I backed the OVER in the lowest scoring game of the week with the Ravens hanging on for a 16-14 win over Pittsburgh coming up a TD shy of the total.
I need to get things straightened out on my Week 15 NFL total picks so I’ll dive right in to identify a few winners.
NFL Week 15 Betting Lines
Top Total Picks Of Week 15
Detroit Lions at New York Jets
Pick: OVER 44.5
If you weren’t a Lions fan before you should be one now. The lovable losers find themselves in contention for a wild card berth and they’re still mathematically alive for the NFC North title. They’ve been scorching hot winning five of their last six with the lone setback to Buffalo by a field goal on Thanksgiving. Following a brief dry spell the offense has picked things up scoring more than 30 points in each of the last four victories.
The Jets have an elite defense making the job of Jared Goff and Co. a bit more formidable. And the QB situation in New York is muddy with Mike White getting injured last week. Could we possibly have a Zach Wilson sighting on Sunday? If we do I expect him to be a better player than what we saw the last time he took the field giving value to the OVER.
Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Chargers
Pick: UNDER 47
Both teams have struggled on defense this year and they’ve also had problems scoring the football. I secretly told myself to stay away from the Titans yet here I am wagering on one of their games again. Actually, I’m betting against them scoring, which in a roundabout way is betting against them. We saw LA’s defense play a solid game to help beat Miami last week and I believe the group has it in them to do it again with a playoff berth riding on their success.
We should see a lot of Derrick Henry against the Bolts’ 28th ranked run defense, and as long as he doesn’t bust a few big runs the game plan is to keep the ball away from Justin Herbert and LA’s offense. The Titans could have success thus keeping the score below the total.
Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers
Pick: OVER 39.5
The total dropped a few points with the weather forecast calling for temperatures in the low teens in Green Bay on Monday night. As long as it doesn’t snow we should see some points go on the board since most players are used to the cold. Two things stick out to me as reasons to bet the OVER in this matchup.
First, the Packers are still alive for a playoff berth so we’ll see Aaron Rodgers. And they are coming off a bye giving the QB and the rest of the squad time to get rejuvenated for the stretch run. And Baker Mayfield is playing with a chip on his shoulder. If he can drive the Rams 98-yards to the game-winning touchdown with under two minutes to play and no timeouts two days after joining the club, imagine what he can do with a week of practice.
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