Some of the best bets in the NFL each week are oftentimes wagers on teams that are considered the worst in the league. If you want to win money betting NFL games then you need to be willing to take teams no one else wants to bet. We refer to these teams as ugly dogs and you really have to hold your nose sometimes when you bet on them, but history has shown that going against the public works. There is no question that this season has been different, as the ugly dogs have really struggled. We’ll press on and look at the Week 15
Week 15 Ugly Dog Picks
Let me point out one fact that you are probably already aware of. When you bet these games, you are usually better off waiting until Sunday morning to make your wagers because you will probably get a better number than what I list from earlier in the week.
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New York Jets +9 at Miami Dolphins
The Jets have just three wins on the season and it has been no better for gamblers who have waged on New York, as the Jets are 3-10 ATS. The Jets have been a huge failure this season under new head coach Robert Saleh. It was thought that New York would be improved on defense considering Saleh was a defensive coordinator in the past, but the Jets have the worst defense in the NFL. The offense has not been much better and the Jets have no idea if Zach Wilson is a franchise quarterback. The Dolphins were given up as dead but they have won five straight and are very much in playoff contention. Miami can’t afford to look past New York in this game, as they have very little margin for error to make the playoffs. The public wants nothing to do with the Jets so perhaps they have a little bit of value, but it is still really hard to bet on a team that is 3-10 ATS. Regardless, this column is not about opinion, as we simply take the ugly dogs and the Jets definitely qualify.
New York Giants +10.5 vs. Dallas Cowboys
The Giants have not been that much better than the Jets this season and head coach Joe Judge has been a failure. Maybe upper management gives him another year because of all of the New York injuries, but maybe not. The Giants had high hopes that Daniel Jones would be a franchise quarterback but he has not been anything special this year and he has also been hurt. Jones is out again this week so that means Mike Glennon under center. The Giants fired offensive coordinator Jason Garrett a few weeks ago but their offensive problems go deeper than just Garrett. The Cowboys are better on both sides of the ball than New York and it is no surprise they are double-digit favorites, even on the road. There is not much to like about the Giants right now and they are definitely an ugly dog this week against the Cowboys.
Detroit Lions +13.5 vs. Arizona Cardinals
The Lions have the worst record in the NFL at 1-11-1 but they have actually been a decent bet against the spread going 8-5. The Lions definitely look better than the Jets or Giants. The Cardinals had the best record in the NFL before last week but they were humbled at home by the Rams. It was shown once again that head coach Kliff Kingsbury is overrated. The Cardinals have a lot of talent on both sides of the ball, but Kingsbury is still capable of messing it up. The Cardinals would seemingly be in a letdown spot after Monday’s home game against the Rams, so perhaps the Lions can keep this one closer than expected. We’ll take the Lions plus the points as an ugly dog.
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