It was a great Week 16 for the favorites on the money line with teams laying points winning 12 of the 15 games through the Sunday night encounter. It’s the most wins since Week 4 when the favorites went 12-3 in a 15-game slate. However, the dogs were barking against the spread with teams getting points on the closing NFL betting line posting an 8-5 mark with two games pushing the spread. We avoided a major upset this week with all five teams favored by at least 10 points winning straight up but going just 1-4 ATS.
It was another strong week for playing the under with eight games finishing below the closing total and one game pushing the final number. A late Bengals touchdown and 2-point conversion allowed them to push the total of 44 in a 26-18 loss. It’s the fifth straight week a majority of games played below the closing total with the under 45-30-3 in that span.
NFL Week 16 Betting Summary
| WAGER | Favorite/Underdog |
| Straight Up | 12 - 3 |
| ATS | 5 - 8 – 2 |
| WAGER | Total (O/U) |
| Over/Under | 6 - 8 - 1 |
Biggest Week 16 Upsets
A season-high five games closed with a spread of at least 10 points and for the first time in four weeks we didn’t have a double-digit dog pull off an upset. However, teams getting points covered in all but one of the five matchups. Cincinnati’s late touchdown not only pushed the total, it gave the Bengals a backdoor cover on the spread. The Giants, Buffalo and Washington also covered the double-digit line.
Getting at least 10 points on the closing line for the second straight game and for the seventh time overall, the Cardinals were the only double-digit dog that failed to cover, bowing 31-9 to the Rams and falling to 2-4-1 ATS when getting at least 10 points.
We had only three upsets this week with the Chargers losing as the biggest favorite. The Bolts fell 22-10 to the Ravens as a 4-point favorite, though it probably wasn’t that big of a surprise considering how well Baltimore is playing and that the Bolts were coming off an emotional win over Kansas City the previous week.
With their playoff lives hanging in the balance, the Miami Dolphins produced and absolute clunker against the Jags, falling 17-7 as 3-point chalk. The final line was shorter than the Bolts-Ravens game, but this one had the feeling of being a bigger upset. The Jags had lost nine of their previous 10 games and failed to score more than 13 points in their last three outings. After surrendering an opening drive touchdown, the Jags held the Fins scoreless, eliminating them from playoff contention.
Biggest Week 16 Spreads
It turns out all the Rams needed was a trip to the desert to cure their ills. Taking a two-game losing streak into their matchup with the Cards, and playing without Todd Gurley, the Rams smoked Arizona 31-9 as a two-touchdown favorite, sweeping the season series by a combined score of 65-9. The Rams have been favored by at least 10 points five times and improved to 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS in those games.
The Browns hadn’t been favored by double-digits since 2007, but the line for their game with the Bengals closed at -10. It looked like and easy cover for Cleveland with a 26-3 lead midway through the fourth quarter. But the Bengals tossed a wrench in that plan by scoring 15 points in the final five minutes.
New England won its game over Buffalo as a 13.5-point favorite, though the Pats failed to show any dominance in their return to Foxboro. It was a win, however, and the Pats will take it after losing two in a row. They also clinched another AFC East title in the process and moved back into the No. 2 seed in the AFC. All seems right for the Patriots now.
A comeback win over the Giants moved Indianapolis into a playoff spot heading into the final week of the season. Andrew Luck’s short scoring pass with less than a minute remaining prevented the Colts from becoming the biggest upset loser of the week and it gave them a narrow victory as a 10-point favorite.
Teams favored by at least 10 points have gone 23-6 SU and 12-16-1 ATS this season.
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