We’ve reached that time of the year in the NFL season when we see more major line moves early in the week. Teams have been eliminated from playoff contention and with players hurting and sitting the line moves are more abundant. Two games on the Week 16 schedule have already seen the line jump the fence in the early part of the betting week. The Falcons opened as a 3-point dog for their matchup with Carolina. When news of Cam Newton being shut down surfaced the line was quickly wagered in favor of Atlanta. Inspired by their win over the Rams last week, backers flocked to the Eagles, moving the opening spread of Philly +1.5 to Eagles -2 for their showdown with the Texans.
Only one other game has seen a line shift as many as 2-points with the remaining 13 having moves of ½ to 1-point. In the grand scheme of things the game between the Packers and Jets is irrelevant, but movement on the line has been frenzied. The Pack opened at -3.5 and when talk of Aaron Rodgers sitting came out the game was wagered to a pick ‘em. Rodgers has since said he’s starting and the line spiked back to its original number. There are people paying close attention to what’s going on, even with teams whose season ends in two weeks.
Let’s take a more in depth look at a few Week 16 games that have seen some shifting in the line since the numbers hit the board.
Week 16 Major Line Moves
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers
Opening Line: Panthers -3
Current Line: Falcons -4
The term significant can definitely apply to the line move for this game. Not only is the shift significant for the number, but also because it jumped the fence and crossed over key numbers. I’m not sure when we last saw a line move seven full points, but the reason for it is valid. Carolina was all but eliminated from playoff contention with a loss to the Saints on Monday night. And it was obvious that Newton’s shoulder injury played a big role. Cam couldn’t throw the ball down the field and his accuracy was also compromised. Give Cam credit for playing through pain, but it may have cost his team a playoff berth.
Carolina was favored on the opening line for a reason, and that’s because the Falcons have tumbled a long way from their Super Bowl appearance just two seasons ago. But with backup Taylor Heinicke making his first career start, the Falcons were pounded at the betting window. Heinicke has been around the league for a few years but he’s only thrown five passes in his career, four of them coming this season.
Houston Texans at Philadelphia Eagles
Opening Line: Texans -1.5
Current Line: Eagles -2
We had another line jumper in this one for a different reason than the above mentioned game. The Eagles got plenty of action on the opening spread of +1 and that forced oddsmakers to adjust the number, eventually jumping in favor of the Eagles. Moving by 3.5-points is a lot, but where the line started and currently resides isn’t that significant. Not many games are decided by one or two points and the spread didn’t cross over key numbers. It does show that the public likes the Eagles after their impressive win last week.
The Texans are on a nice run and got closer to a playoff berth with a win over the Jets last week, their 10th in 11 games. The offense hasn’t been as dynamic as it was last season with Deshaun Watson at the controls. And we saw what happened after his injury. Houston also has a slew of defenders in the rotation, including J.J. Watt, Whitney Mercilus and Jadeveon Clowney, who all missed chunks of time last year. It’s going to be tough for Nick Foles to continue the magic, but a good number of bettors believe in him and the Eagles.
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns
Opening Line: Browns -7
Current Line: Browns -9
Baker Mayfield is not a big fan of his former coach Hue Jackson, who took a gig with the Bengals shortly after being fired. That move irritated the No. 1 overall pick and the meeting between the two after the Browns slapped the Bengals a few weeks ago was awkward. That whole scenario may have motivated Mayfield, who threw for a career-best four touchdown passes in the 35-20 victory. It also sparked the Browns, who are 4-1 in their last five games and still alive for a playoff spot.
Playing meaningful games in December is something the Browns aren’t accustomed to, and so is winning six games. They’ve won that many in a season just once since 2007 and the current roster is putting all the troubles from the Jackson era behind it. Cleveland opened as a touchdown favorite only to see the line wagered up to -9. Not only are the Browns winning on the field, they are also winning at the betting window with a 4-1 ATS mark in their last five outings.
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