We had a nice rebound last week on our top teaser picks, making the proper adjustments to the spread and total in three of our four games. That still doesn’t get us a winning ticket, but the results were much better than the previous week when the wackiness around the league gave us a big ohfer. Winning the Sunday night game going over the teased total, and taking Carolina with the additional points in the Monday night affair was nice but meaningless since the Seahawks blew up our teaser card by losing outright to the Niners on Sunday afternoon.
Moving the spread or total by as many as six points in our favor is supposed to make winning easier, but the unpredictable nature of the NFL proves there is no sure thing. We have a few more weeks to get it right and the Week 16 slate of games offers some enticing matchups. We remain confident in our ability to properly tease the lines, and we’ll try to beat the house with our top teaser picks of the week.
Week 16 Top Teaser Picks
Baltimore Ravens at Los Angeles Chargers
Current Line: Ravens +4.5
Teaser Line: Ravens +10.5
Considering how stingy the Ravens are defensively, I expect this game to be very close. And it certainly wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Bolts have a minor letdown after finally catching the Chiefs with a big win on the road last week. The Chargers have been tracking down KC since losing the opener and they caught up with a dramatic win. Both teams have plenty to play for as well, only increasing the intensity. The Ravens currently own the last wild card spot by a tie-breaker, but they can also win the AFC North. And they’ve played good football over the past several weeks behind newly-crowned starter Lamar Jackson, who has four wins in five starts since taking over for Joe Flacco. I like the Ravens just because the way they play defense and teasing the line to 10.5-points should bring us a winner.
Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers
Current Total: 42.5
Teaser Total: 48.5
The Bears claimed their first NFC North title since 2010 thanks to one of the most destructive defenses in football. The group was good last season, but the acquisition of Khalil Mack made them great. They are second against the run and third in both total defense and scoring defense and they smothered two pretty good quarterbacks the last two weeks, holding the Rams without a touchdown while picking off four Jared Goff passes, and limiting Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay in last week’s division-clinching win. With a chance to overtake the Rams for the No. 2 seed in the conference, I can’t imagine the Bears taking their foot off the gas. And I also can’t imagine Nick Mullens having more success against the group than either Goff or Rodgers, making the under on the teased line the right pick.
Houston Texans at Philadelphia Eagles
Current Line: Texans +2.5
Teaser Line: Texans +8.5
A lot of people are getting behind the defending champs after they rallied for a big win over the Rams last week as a two-touchdown underdog. And they have their secret weapon behind center as Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles has taken over for the injured Carson Wentz. That was a good story last year but I doubt it’s going to fly this season. Foles wasn’t spectacular last week, but the Eagles as a team were. They dominated the Rams in a must-win game but they’ve struggled to find consistency for much of the year. Meanwhile, the Texans keep rolling having won 10 of their last 11 games with a chance to clinch the AFC South. We haven’t seen the dynamic play from Deshaun Watson that he displayed last season, but the team is winning football games and they are healthy. Having J.J. Watt, Whitney Mercilus and Jadeveon Clowney around has helped the Texans solve many offenses, and the Eagles aren’t going to score enough to cover the 8.5-point teased line.
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns
Current Total: 45
Teaser Total: 39
Given how bad the Bengals defense is and Baker Mayfield’s dislike for former coach and current Cincy assistant Hue Jackson, the Browns might topple the teased total of 39 by themselves. There will be some top offensive talent on the Bengals sideline with Andy Dalton and A.J. Green already on the shelf. Leading receiver Tyler Boyd joined them last week, leaving Cincy shorthanded. The Bengals did rally for a win over the Raiders last week with Joe Mixon dialing it up and he’ll be the featured player this time around. The Browns are still mathematically alive for a playoff berth and playing meaningful games in December is something new. But so is winning six games in a season.
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