It’s not nice to tease, but if it’s required to bet on NFL games than I’m all for it. And teasing the odds has been profitable for me this season so I’ll continue. Yep, once again I hit a three-team teaser in Week 15 giving me two straight winning tickets and eight in the past 11 weeks. You have to win a higher percentage of teasers since buying points to move the spread or total in your favor has a price. But a major heater like this certainly makes wagering on the games fun while keeping the bank roll where it needs to be.
In my Week 14 three-team winner there was actually no need to tease the odds since my teams won against the original number. That wasn’t the case last week with one game needing the manipulated spread to produce a winner. That came in the Chicago/Philadelphia matchup where the Eagles were originally -9. I brought that number down to -3 thinking Justin Fields would pose a problem. Turns out I was right since Fields flummoxed the Eagles defense throwing a pair of TD passes and running for 95 yards. The Bears got a backdoor cover on the original line with a late Fields TD pass making the score 25-20, but it wasn’t enough to cover the teased line of Philly -3.
I didn’t need to tease the numbers in the other games, but it sure made watching the scores a lot easier to handle. I said last week the Bills are overvalued in some games and I thought they were in the Miami matchup. Not only did the Dolphins cover the teased line they also stayed within the posted +7.5-point spread while nearly winning outright. Buffalo scored the final 10 points with a last second field goal giving them a 32-29 victory. After watching the Giants and Commanders slog their way to a 20-20 tie in Week 13 I expected the same and got less. The Giants won 20-12 keeping the score below the posted total of 40 and well below the teased total.
Now let’s visit the NFL Week 16 schedule to see what odds we can tease to keep this heater going.
NFL Week 16 Betting Lines
Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers
Opening Total: 44
Teaser Total: 38
The way the Lions are playing they could hit 38 on their own. I do expect the Panthers to help out, though, going against a defense that ranks next to last in total yards and points per game allowed. What makes this game even more interesting is that both teams are in the thick of the playoff fight. The Panthers are just a game out of first in the NFC South and the Lions clawed their way back to .500 and are just outside the top-7.
The Lions are philanthropic on defense and Carolina is only slightly better. I can see points on the board in this one and the Lions are a confident bunch winning three straight and six of their last seven games. Jared Goff has thrown for over 3,600 yards with 23 touchdowns and just seven picks while Jamal Williams has rushed for 839 yards and 14 scores. Dropping the total to play the OVER is the smart move.
Buffalo Bills at Chicago Bears
Opening Line: Bears +9
Teaser Line: Bears +15
Though they’ve been a big favorite in a number of games the Bills have played a bunch of close contests. Six of their last seven games were decided by a single score with the Bills going 2-5 ATS. They’ll likely win this matchup, but we saw Justin Fields and the Bears play an inspired game last week against Philly falling 25-20.
And the Bears have been doing the opposite of Buffalo by losing a number of close games. We saw the Fields effect last week with the QB throwing a pair of scoring passes while rushing for nearly 100 yards. It never feels like the Bears are out of a game with Fields running the show, they just haven’t done enough to earn those wins. And like I said before a two-score spread in the NFL is hard to pass on.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Arizona Cardinals
Opening Line: Cardinals +8
Teaser Line: Cardinals +14
Well, here I go again moving the spread for a game into double-figures. It’s worked well in the past simply because that’s a lot of points. And this isn’t as big a mismatch as the opening line suggests. We had movement because the Cards are turning to the backup’s backup at QB. With Kyler Murray done for the season and Colt McCoy in concussion protocol, Trace McSorley is set to get the start on Sunday night.
McSorely put together a solid career at Penn State and has the tools to get things done. He struggled last week throwing a pair of picks, but given the chance to work first-string reps in practice this week will only help in his development. And this is a good spot for him to show coaches and management what he’s capable of and I think he can do enough the keep Arizona within the hefty two-touchdown spread.
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