With teams jockeying for playoff positioning and others out of the picture altogether, there have been some reactions on the NFL betting lines ahead of the Week 17 matchups. The Dallas Cowboys are locked into the No. 4 seed in the NFC and will host a playoff game on Wild Card Weekend. Playing starters and risking health is a concern and we saw the line open with the Giants as a 3-point favorite. And it’s already moved three points in favor of New York. The Saints secured the top seed in the NFC with a win last week and they too have no reason to play regulars in the season finale against Carolina. Oddsmakers waited until Wednesday to post the line with the Saints hitting the board at -9.
We saw the line for the Falcons-Bucs game jump the fence with Tampa Bay getting flooded with a majority of the early action The Bucs opened as a 2-point dog but the public swung the line to Bucs -1.5. There haven’t been any other significant moves with a majority of the moves falling in the typical ½- to 1-point range.
Let’s take a more in depth look at a few Week 17 games that have seen some shifting in the line since the numbers hit the board.
Week 17 Major Line Moves
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants
Opening Line: Giants -3
Current Line: Giants -6
In a typical scenario given what’s happened this year, the Cowboys would be the favorite. This is not a typical situation, however. Jason Garret said he has no plans to rest his starters, but the betting public is having none of that. The Giants opened as a field goal favorite and the line spiked an additional three points to its current number. The Boys aren’t going anywhere in the standings, getting locked into the No. 4 seed with last week’s win over Tampa Bay that also secured the NFC East title.
The Giants have their own issues and the future of Eli Manning in the Big Apple is murky. But New York’s starters are better than Dallas’ backups and the line is proof of that. Again, the Boys haven’t set out definitive plans for Sunday, but the risk of losing a star player, especially on offense, outweighs the reward. We could see Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott and others for a series or two, but even that’s probably too much. Dallas simply doesn’t have the depth to head into the postseason shorthanded.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans
Opening Line: Texans -9
Current Line: Texans -6.5
This one’s a bit of a head scratcher with the Jags a mess and so much still to be decided for the Texans. Houston can finish as the No. 1 seed in the AFC and they can also fall to the sixth seed depending on how the games unfold on Sunday. The opening line was too high with the Texans at -9 to start. The public moved the spread down to -6.5 with some buyback. The Jags haven’t been able to do much offensively this season, but their defense is still solid.
And given Houston’s inability to run the football over the last few games, the public jumped on the Jags and 9-points on the early NFL betting lines. The Jags are going back to Blake Bortles for the finale, and he has something to prove. Still, this one will likely be a low-scoring affair and the points were too good to pass on the opening line.
Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos
Opening Line: Chargers -4
Current Line: Chargers -6.5
It’s safe to say the Broncos are done and so is the coaching career of Vance Joseph in Denver. Just a few weeks ago the Broncos were at the playoff doorstep following three straight wins and the perceived soft part of the schedule on tap. It sure didn’t work out that way with losses to the Niners, Browns and Raiders giving Denver back-to-back losing seasons for the first time since 1972. Not that they had much of a chance anyway, but the Broncos will be without their most productive offensive player with Phillip Lindsey on the shelf with a wrist injury.
Playing for the No. 1 seed in the AFC and looking to get over their worst offensive performance of the season, it’s hard not to like the Bolts in this one. And that’s what the public is saying by backing the visitors to spike the spread by 2.5 points. If the Bolts don’t win the division they can look back to the first meeting when they outplayed Denver yet lost on a last second field goal. Payback is a bitch and the public is buying the Bolts.
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