Teasing the lines perfectly last week allowed us to cash a winning ticket on our four-team card. We’ll look to close out the season on a strong note by beating the house again in Week 17. What makes last week special is that three of the four games we teased would have won without moving the line or spread. The Ravens were a 4.5-point dog on the opening line and they won outright, so we didn’t need the extra points. We also took the under on the Bears-Niners game, which easily fell below the total.
The matchup between AFC North rivals Cleveland and Cincinnati was the only game that needed teasing to produce a winner. The score fell below the total of 45, but moving the number in our favor allowed us to win on the over bet. The Browns won the game 28-16, giving us a winner on the teased total of 39. Moving the spread or total by as many as six points in our favor is supposed to make winning easier, and it did last week. We head into the final week feeling confident in our ability to properly tease the lines, and we’ll try to beat the house with our top teaser picks of the week.
Week 17 Top Teaser Picks
Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs
Current Line: Chiefs -13.5
Teaser Line: Chiefs -7.5
The Chiefs have one more chance to win the AFC West and clinch the No. 1 seed in the conference, and I fully expect them to come out swinging. They’ve lost two in row and three of their last five, but it’s not like they’ve been blown out in any of their losses. The four defeats have come by a combined 14 points. The losses have coincided with the release of Kareem Hunt, so fixing that hole is a priority. But the biggest concern is on defense where the Chiefs continue to be one of the worst groups. Don’t worry too much about the offense though, Patrick Mahomes continues his MVP season and he has plenty of playmakers even without Hunt. Oakland blew its wad last week and the emotion of playing a final time at the decrepit Coliseum is now behind them. Back to reality means a cakewalk victory for KC.
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens
Current Line: Browns +6
Teaser Line: Browns +12
While everybody is jumping on Lamar Jackson and the Ravens bandwagon, the Browns have put together a strong season and have a chance to finish the year with a winning record. That may not sound like much, but for a team that didn’t win a game in 2017, the turnaround has been special. Baker Mayfield has thrived since the coaching change and the Browns have won five of their last six games. And playing the role of spoiler against a division foe is always special. The Ravens can run the football, but they haven’t scored a lot of points. That has me teasing the line in favor of the Browns and playing with 12 points is a lot in a low-scoring matchup.
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers
Current Total: 45
Teaser Total: 39
Even though the Packers are out of the playoff picture, Aaron Rodgers still put on a show in a win over the Jets last week. Green Bay amassed 540 yards of offense and Rodgers matched his season-high with 442 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Green Bay’s two highest scoring games of the season have come in the last three outings and Joe Philbin is making a run at taking over the head job on a permanent basis. If he can get Rodgers to play the way he has recently, that should be an easy choice for management. The Lions have been a wreck all season and I can’t see them stopping the Pack’s offense. The question is whether the Lions can score enough to cash the over. Teasing the total to 39 should help and the Pack can reach that on their own.
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings
Current Total: 41
Teaser Total: 47
Two very good defensive teams with plenty on the line for both has us taking the under in this matchup of NFC North rivals. The Bears hounded Nick Mullens last week and they kept the Niners out of the end zone, which was probably easy after holding the Rams to a pair of field goals and stifling the Packers in their last two games. The Bears have a shot at a first-round bye and will play this game like they want it. The Vikings need a win to clinch a playoff spot and I don’t expect anything fancy. In a game that will play conservative on both sides, teasing the total to 47 should allow us to cash the under.
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