I hit a cold spell on my NFL total picks the last few weeks and as a result my record fell to .500. Considering the juice paid on those bets I’m actually in the red. I have a few more chances to right the ship with only two weeks of NFL regular season games remaining. And I’ve had success in the past so there’s no reason why it can’t happen again. If you bet the UNDER on every game this season you’d have a better record than me since 53.5 percent of the games finished below the closing total. Last week the UNDER cashed in 10 of the 16 contests.
Weather was a factor in Cleveland for the Browns/Saints game. I knew what was coming and still ignored it backing the OVER. The temperature at kickoff was 6 degrees and I still thought the teams could exceed the insanely low total of 32.5. And it looked promising with the Saints leading 17-10 through three quarters. The teams combined for three punts and two turnovers on downs in a scoreless fourth. The Rams hadn’t scored more than 24 points in a game since Week 2 and totaled 29 points in two previous games. There was no indication they’d put up 51 on what has been a strong Denver defense. The Rams were gifted great field position with their three picks converting those miscues into 17 points leading to a 51-14 victory.
The game of the week took place in Dallas between the top teams in the NFC East. The Cowboys forced four Eagles turnovers and twice came back from a 10-point deficit to pull out a 40-34 win. The Cowboys kept their hopes of a division title alive and continued their torrid offensive pace cashing the OVER in a fifth straight game and for the seventh time in eight outings. The teams hit the total of 47 with a Dallas field with five minutes left in the third quarter.
Let’s move to the Week 17 total picks.
NFL Week 17 Betting Lines
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions
Pick: OVER 52
It’s always risky backing the OVER in a game that has the highest total on the board. What makes the decision easier is the fact that both teams stink on defense. The Lions were shredded for 320 rushing yards and 570 total yards by a Carolina offense that had done little all season. The Bears have their own issues stopping the run and preventing points. They allow over 151 rushing yards per game and are next to last yielding 26.2 points per game. The Lions have the worst scoring defense allowing an average of 26.7 points.
Buffalo shut down the Bears offense last week by containing Justin Fields holding him to only 11 yards on seven carries. Unfortunately the Lions don’t have the same defense. Fields ran for 147 yards and two scores in the Week 10 meeting but a late Detroit touchdown and the following PAT gave the Lions a 31-30 win. This one has all the makings of another shootout.
Indianapolis Colts at New York Giants
Pick: UNDER 38.5
It doesn’t matter who quarterbacks the Colts they stink no matter what. Turning to former Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles last week wasn’t the answer. Foles tossed three picks and was sacked seven times by the Chargers. Indy has struggled to score all season and was held to three points or less for the third time in the 20-3 setback to LA. The plan is to finish the season with Foles, but that was a disaster last week.
The teams have failed to light up the scoreboard this season and while the total appears low it really isn’t. Throw in a little weather for the teams to deal with and scoring becomes even more of a challenge. And as it stands the teams like playing low scoring games. The UNDER is 10-5 in Colts games and 8-5-2 in Giants outings.
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs
Pick: UNDER 45
With the firing of coach Nathaniel Hackett after last week’s 51-14 embarrassment against the Rams, every player on the Broncos roster is on notice. Well, maybe everyone except Russell Wilson, who signed a hefty extension when acquired. It’s been a forgettable season for Wilson and the Broncos but I do expect them to perform better than they did in LA. Three Wilson interceptions and defensive breakdowns just added to the misery.
The teams had a high scoring affair when they met in Week 14 with KC holding on for a 34-28 win. I don’t see the Chiefs playing so carelessly this week and the Broncos shouldn’t be allowing that many points. The Chiefs are capable of putting up big numbers, but playing for pride while trying to stop a 14-game losing streak and impress a new coach should inspire Denver to play a tougher game.
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