Some of the best bets in the NFL each week are oftentimes wagers on teams that are considered the worst in the league. If you want to win money betting NFL games then you need to be willing to take teams no one else wants to bet. We refer to these teams as ugly dogs and you really have to hold your nose sometimes when you bet on them, but history has shown that going against the public works. We are coming off a 3-2 week with the five plays for last week. Let’s look at the Week 17
Week 17 Ugly Dog Picks
Let me point out one fact that you are probably already aware of. When you bet these games, you are usually better off waiting until Sunday morning to make your wagers because you will probably get a better number than what I list from earlier in the week.
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New York Jets +13.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Can oddsmakers really make the line high enough on this game to entice bettors to take the Jets? New York did play better last week, but how much credit do you give them for beating a rotten Jacksonville team? The Bucs have already clinched the NFC South but they still want to improve their overall playoff seeding and it is hard to see much of a letdown against the Jets. The public is likely to be all over the Bucs in this game so perhaps we can get this line up to 14 or more and slip in a backdoor cover. We take the Jets as an ugly dog.
New York Giants +6.5 at Chicago Bears
The Giants are an ugly team right now going nowhere. They were humiliated last week in Philadelphia and even going against a weak Chicago team there is not much to like about the Giants. New York has two quarterbacks in Mike Glennon and Jake Fromm who inspire no confidence. The Bears actually showed some heart last week in a win over Seattle and they look like they at least care, while the Giants have mailed it in. The Giants are an ugly dog and we take them plus the points in this game at Chicago.
Carolina Panthers +7.5 at New Orleans Saints
The Panthers have struggled for much of the season and they have problems at quarterback with either Cam Newton or Sam Darnold under center. The Saints should have more of their players back this week off the COVID list so they should look much different than they did a week ago when they were stuck playing Ian Book at quarterback. The Saints still have a shot at the playoffs and they should be motivated for a big effort this week. The Panthers are a mess right now and there is not much to like, so they definitely qualify as an ugly dog. We take the Panthers plus the points.
Jacksonville Jaguars +15 at New England Patriots
Good luck at finding anyone who wants to bet the rotten Jaguars this week against the Patriots. Jacksonville is the worst team in the NFL and they have problems on the field and off the field. The Patriots lost to the Bills last week, but they are still in the mix for the AFC East title and they are in a Wild Card spot. The Patriots could have a bit of a letdown after the loss to Buffalo, but will it matter? The Jaguars have been an ugly dog all season and rarely come through for us. We are stuck taking Jacksonville again this week.
Houston Texans +12 at San Francisco 49ers
The Texans have actually been pretty good to us of late, as they look decent on offense with Davis Mills at quarterback. He will get a stiff test this week in San Francisco against a 49ers team looking to make the playoffs. San Francisco does have some issues of their own, including at quarterback, as Jimmy Garoppolo is injured and questionable for this game. Backup Trey Lance is said to be the future starter for the 49ers but he has yet to show he is ready for that role. We’ll take the Texans as an ugly dog.
Detroit Lions +7 at Seattle Seahawks
The Lions are still playing hard, but they are still a bad team that is poorly coached. It will be interesting to see how motivated they are to play this game. The Lions don’t want to win any more games, as that would hurt their draft position. The Seahawks found a way to lose last week against Chicago and they are out of playoff contention, so they may not have much motivation. We’ll take the Lions as an ugly dog.
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