With the final week of the NFL regular season upon us I think I can now say my NFL parlay cards and picks weren’t very good. Actually I think I said that every week because it’s true. I did get a few games right every week, which kept me coming back for more, but I failed to hit a four-team winner doing damage that even a winning ticket in Week 18 won’t begin to cover the losses. Winning a parlay isn’t easy and I proved that this season.
The final weekend of the season might be the most difficult to figure out. With 11 of the 14 playoff spots locked up and 13 teams officially eliminated, you have to wonder what the motivation will be for a number of teams. Of course there’s the standard play for pride line and some clubs can improve their playoff positioning. There’s also been news of quarterback shuffling around the league. Washington announced that Sam Howell will start Sunday against Dallas with the Cowboys still having a chance to win the NFC East with a win and Philadelphia loss.
The Dolphins have reportedly given first team practice reps to Skylar Thompson getting him prepped to start a big game against the Jets. Teddy Bridgewater injured a finger on his throwing hand last week and his status is unknown. Tampa Bay clinched the NFC South and No. 4 seed but Todd Bowles said he plans to start Tom Brady in the Bucs’ matchup with Atlanta. One game in each conference will have a direct impact on the postseason field. The winner of the Tennessee/Jacksonville game gets the AFC South crown and the No. 4 seed. The Packers can finish off an improbable run and secure the final wild card spot in the NFC with a win over Detroit on Sunday night.
Let’s move to the Week 18 parlay picks.
NFL Week 18 Betting Lines
Las Vegas Raiders +9
Dallas Cowboys -7.5
New England Patriots +7.5
Tampa Bay / Atlanta O40.5
I split my four picks last week with the Raiders giving me a win by hanging close in their loss to San Francisco. It’s been a theme for Vegas all season with nine of their 10 setbacks by a single score and five of them, including the last three, by a field goal or less. They had a slim chance at qualifying for the playoffs before last week’s defeat and that’s gone now. How will they respond against a Chiefs squad that can secure the No. 1 seed in the AFC? Jarrett Stidham has something to prove after riddling the Niners elite defense for 365 passing yards and three TDs. While the Chiefs boast the best record in the AFC they’ve also played a number of close games, including a narrow 1-point home win over Vegas in Week 5.
Sam Howell was a stud at North Carolina throwing for over 10,000 yards while directing some of the highest scoring offenses in college football. The NFL is a different story and Howell is thrown into the fire with his first NFL start against the Cowboys, who are playing for a shot at the NFC East title. The Cowboys have been on fire since Dak Prescott returned from injury going 6-1 in their last seven while scoring at least 27 points in each outing. Dallas won its third straight in the series, 25-10, getting the payout in Week 4.
With their fallen teammate still in the hospital following a horrifying incident on Monday Night Football, you have to wonder how into the game the Bills are going to be. They have a chance at the top seed in the AFC but the suspended game throws a wrench in the schedule with no time to finish the contest. Maybe a game of Madden ’23 can decide the outcome. The Pats are catching 7.5 points and with a win secure the final playoff berth in the conference. As long as they don’t play giveaway I think the Pats have a chance to win the game and they will at least stay within the line.
It’s a risky move but one the Bucs deem necessary for an extended playoff run. Tampa’s game with Atlanta has no bearing on playoff positioning but the Bucs are reportedly sending out their starters, including Brady. The Bucs put things together in the clinching 30-24 win over Carolina scoring their most points since Week 4. Brady threw for 432 yards and three TDs, two of them and a rushing score in the fourth quarter as Tampa overcame an early 14-0 deficit. The Falcons have struggled to score, but Desmond Ridder has looked better the last few games leaving me optimistic the clubs can cash the OVER.
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