When wagering on the NFL there’s nothing more frustrating than coming so close to winning only to have victory snatched away from you. That might be a little dramatic but it doesn’t lessen the pain. For the second straight week I hit two winners on my three-team teaser card, but as we all know by now every pick has to win in order to get the payout. Moving the spread or total in your favor should make betting easier and for the most part it has for me. I had a stretch of seven wins during an eight-week span earlier in the season and look to close out the regular season with yet another three-team winner on my NFL teaser picks.
Of all teams it was the Chiefs that prevented me from cashing a winning ticket last week. Going against the woeful Broncos as a 13.5-point favorite on the original line I thought surely they’d win on the teased line of -7.5. And they probably would’ve covered except for a rare Patrick Mahomes red zone interception. Denver’s touchdown midway through the fourth quarter provided the final points in KC’s 27-24 win.
It’s bittersweet to talk about the games I won since the ticket was a loser, but I’ll do it anyway. Backing the UNDER in the Steelers/Ravens game was a winner without the teased line since both clubs have played strong defense the last few weeks. And that was the case in this matchup with a combined 29 points. Although the Raiders stink this season things could have been much different with a number of close setbacks on their ledger. So backing them with a teased line of +16 looked like the right play. Turned out it was with Vegas losing for a fifth time this season by three points or less.
Let’s move to the Week 18 teaser picks.
NFL Week 18 Betting Lines
Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders
Opening Line: Raiders +9
Teaser Line: Raiders +15
I just mentioned the number of close games the Raiders have played this season and here we are again with them catching 9-points on the opening line. There are similarities with last week’s game, mainly the spread. I teased Vegas to +16 in their game with the Niners and of course the Raiders stayed within the original line. One difference this week is that the Raiders don’t have a chance to make the postseason. It’s still an audition for Jarrett Stidham and he impressed in his first start throwing for 365 yards and three touchdowns.
The Chiefs failed to cover the 13.5-point spread in their 27-24 win over Denver last week moving them to 1-4-1 ATS when laying double-figures. The teams have played a number of close games this season, including the first meeting that KC won 30-29 in Week 4. The Chiefs are 5-0 against the AFC West with every game decided by six points or less.
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts
Opening Line: Texans +2.5
Teaser Line: Texans +8.5
The Texans aren’t very good and a win puts them in jeopardy of losing the No. 1 overall pick in this year’s draft. But the Colts have been awful and even if Houston tries to tank they’ll probably stay within the spread. We did everything right teasing the line in this game crossing over key numbers and putting Houston in a good spot against a club that can’t get out of its own way.
The Colts have dropped five straight with some in excruciating fashion. The surrendered a late lead in a 1-point loss to Philadelphia, allowed the Cowboys to score 33 fourth quarter points in a 54-19 setback and coughed up the largest lead in NFL history in an overtime loss to Minnesota. The Texans have fewer wins but it’s hard to see them losing by nine points to a dysfunctional outfit.
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers
Opening Total: 49.5
Teaser Total: 43.5
This could be a winner-take-all game for the final playoff spot in the NFC depending on how things go earlier on Sunday. For Green Bay the math is simple: when and you’re in. And to do that Pack will need Aaron Rodgers to sharp in order to offset Detroit’s weapons. The Lions could be fighting for a playoff spot or playing spoiler depending on the outcome of the Seattle/LA Rams game.
Even if they’re relegated to a spoiler I expect the Lions to play hard, Dan Campbell wouldn’t have it any other way. Jared Goff is having a stellar campaign throwing for over 4,200 yards with 29 touchdowns and seven interceptions. He hasn’t been picked in his last eight games helping the offense keep and extend drives. The Lions rank in the top-5 in total offense and scoring and have the fewest giveaways in the NFL allowing them to extend drives and put points on the board.
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