Let me just say that it’s a good thing I had success on my teaser picks because I’ve been as cold as the Arctic Circle on my NFL total picks. I should try something different this week and switch my picks after I make them. Had a used that technique in Week 17 I would’ve been a perfect 3-0. Instead I’ve gone just 2-12 on my picks over the last four weeks dropping my season record below .500 wiping out all the gains I made during a 15-6 heater during the middle of the season. The final weekend of the regular season gives me one last chance to reverse the trend and finish the year on a positive note.
Looking at some of the recent news around the NFL we could say offensive production might be limited. Washington was eliminated from playoff contention and averages just 18.4 points so why not see what Sam Howell can do. A productive player during his days at UNC, Howell gets the nod against the aggressive Dallas defense. And the Cowboys still have a shot at the NFC East crown. The Bears said Justin Fields is done for the finale turning to Nathan Peterman, and the Dolphins could have Skylar Thompson behind center with Teddy Bridgewater and Tua Tagovailoa injured. And after what we saw on Monday night how many players in a meaningless game are going to go all out?
A touchdown a field goal or even a safety. Two points was all that was needed to put the Chicago/Detroit game over the total and give me at least one win. But the teams, especially the Bears, didn’t comply. I said last week it was a risky bet and once again I should’ve listened. It looked promising early with both teams scoring on their first two drives, but the Bears were shut out the rest of the way with seven three-and-outs in their final nine possessions. I didn’t see the Giants scoring 38 points and nearly reaching the total by themselves, but they were playing the Colts. I lost that one too backing the UNDER. It’s time in Week 18 to turn things around.
Let’s move to the Week 18 total picks.
NFL Week 18 Betting Lines
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
Pick: UNDER 42.5
Without Fields at quarterback the Bears have no offense making the UNDER the smart play in this game. Whether by design or for personal safety Fields ran for 132 yards last week accounting for more than half of the team’s total yardage. He leads the NFL’s top rushing offense with 1,143 yards and eight TD’s while throwing for another 17 scores. The club announced during the week that Fields will sit the finale with Peterman getting the start.
The Vikings just need a sound game after getting blitzed in Green Bay losing a chance at the No. 1 seed in the NFC. I don’t think we’ll see an exotic playbook on Sunday after Kirk Cousins tossed three picks. The Bears will have difficulty scoring and the Vikings would rather run the ball leaving this one open to going below the total.
Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders
Pick: OVER 52.5
The highest total on the Week 18 board is in this game and I have no reservations backing the OVER. The Chiefs are the league’s highest scoring team averaging 29.1 points and they effortlessly put up at least 20 points every game. Patrick Mahomes is eyeing another MVP trophy and the Chiefs can secure home field advantage with a win, so don’t expect them to take their foot off the gas.
Mahomes has feasted on the Vegas defense during a four-game winning streak and KC has scored at least 30 points in each of the previous six meetings cashing the OVER in the last five with the total at 51.5 or higher in four of those games. Jarrett Stidham had a big game against the Niners’ top defense last week throwing for 365 yards and three touchdowns in the 37-34 loss.
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins
Pick: UNDER 38.5
The big question ahead of this matchup is who will be playing quarterback. And that goes for both clubs. Miami was without four starters last week and lost Teddy Bridgewater to a dislocated finger on his throwing hand. Bridgewater’s status for Sunday is cloudy with Skylar Thompson getting first-team reps in practice.
A lack of offense and poor QB play crushed the Jets’ playoff hopes. Zach Wilson is done for the season with Mike White getting the start Sunday. White has played well at times but the Jets struggled to score points during a five-game losing streak that eliminated them from the postseason. New York’s defense kept them in a lot of games and they will make things tough for whoever Miami has behind center.
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