With Week 3 of the 2023 NFL season upon us it’s time to get serious about our betting methods and technique. Actually the method for our parlay picks will remain the same with a three-bet ticket. The technique needs to change, however, after losing two of three wagers on last week’s card. So I’ll scan the lines for the upcoming games at Crypto Sportsbooks looking for the best value picks. I feel for the New York Jets, who did everything they could to get into a position to reach the playoffs. One thing you can’t account for is injuries and the Jets had the most serious one with Aaron Rodgers going down. I still had faith backing them and 9.5-points last week. Zack Wilson isn’t the answer, though, and Gang Green is in trouble.
NFL Betting Lines
Week 3 NFL Parlay Card Wagers
I expected the Chiefs to regroup after dropping their opener and they covered the 3-point line beating Jacksonville 17-9. Unfortunately that was the only winning pick on my three-team parlay as the Jets laid an egg and the offense in the Miami/New England game came up short of the 46.5 total. Other than that game it was a good week for scoring with 13 of the 16 games cashing the OVER. Underdogs also fared well in Week 2 winning six games outright and staying within the closing line in three others. Backing the dogs gives a bigger payout on a winning as long as you identify the winning teams.
Houston Texans +8.5
Detroit Lions -3.5
Ravens / Colts OVER 44
$100 bet to win $648
They have yet to win a game or get a payout but I liked how the Houston Texans looked in last week’s loss to the Colts. That’s tough to say about a team on the wrong end of a 31-20 score, but they showed a lot of character dealing with significant injuries on the offensive line. C.J. Stroud took a beating getting sacked six times and hit countless others. But he kept his composure and had a big game statistically completing 30 of 47 for 384 yards and two touchdowns.
After a tough first half where the Texans allowed four touchdowns, the group played an inspired second half holding Indy to just a field goal. The dual threat ability of Anthony Richardson gave them problems but the Texans won’t have to be as concerned facing Trevor Lawrence on Sunday. And with new coach DeMeco Ryans being a defensive guy I expect Houston to be even stingier on that side of the ball. They may not win the game, but I do think the Texans can keep this game within the 8.5-point spread.
The Lions got a gut check last week losing to Seattle in another barn-burner between those clubs. In order to live up to the hype thrown on them the defense has to be better. Detroit was last in total defense and tied for 28th in points allowed last season, and while those areas were addressed the group was up to its old tricks allowing nearly 400 yards to the Seahawks.
Detroit scored 10 points in the final three-plus minutes of regulation to force overtime and they look strong moving the ball, though they’ll be without David Montgomery for a few games, but I don’t anticipate the Falcons putting up big numbers giving Detroit a strong chance of covering the 3.5-point line.
I’m backing the OVER in the Baltimore/Indianapolis contest on the assumption that Anthony Richardson plays. Following his second rushing touchdown on the Colts second possession, Richardson sustained an apparent concussion when knocked to the turf. He exited the game a little later entering the protocol. With another dynamic QB in Lamar Jackson on the other side I can see points being scored. Jackson threw a pair of scoring passes and rushed for 54 yards leading the Ravens to a 27-24 win over Cincinnati going over the total of 45.5.
Gardner Minshew is a capable backup leaving the Colts offense in decent shape should Richardson not play. The Colts have scored 52 points while conceding 51 in their two games with the OVER a serious possibility in this matchup.
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