It’s been a wild opening three weeks of the NFL season and oddsmakers and bettors are still trying to adjust. The defending AFC Champion Patriots have looked nothing like the team we expected to see and their opening line moved off a key number to -6.5 for their AFC East showdown with Miami. Patrick Mahomes is breaking all kinds of early season records for the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs and the rookie quarterback class is about to take over in Week 4.
Baker Mayfield and Josh Rosen will follow draft class mates Josh Allen and Sam Darnold into the starters role this week. Bettors are buying Darnold and Rosen while Mayfield and the Browns have faded. Allen and the Bills pulled off the biggest upset in recent NFL history by taking down the Vikings as 16.5-point dogs last week. Can they do it again? Most early line moves have resulted in slight shifts between 1/2 and 1-point, but a few have had significant movement and we’ll examine those games here.
Week 4 Major Line Moves
Buffalo Bills at Green Bay Packers
Opening Line: Green Bay -11
Current Line: Green Bay -9.5
After a gritty effort last week in Minnesota where they won outright, 27-6, as a 16.5-point underdog, the Bills get another top NFC North team in the Packers. Is Josh Allen the greatest underdog quarterback to ever play? He has a long way to go to prove that, but he was for one week at least, leading the Bills to an impressive win. Despite his heroics, oddsmakers still saw plenty of holes in the Bills, pegging them as 11-point dogs on the opening line. Hit with early sharp action on the visitors, the line fell to Green Bay -9.5.
The Packers are still a mystery at this point. Can Aaron Rodgers survive an entire season on his gimpy knee and will the defense make strides under coordinator Mike Pettine? If not for the Houdini act by Rodgers in the opener, the Pack would be winless and they certainly haven’t scared anyone yet this season. Even with the lofty spread the public is still backing the Packers with a majority of the action. However, confidence in them is waning.
Cleveland Browns at Oakland Raiders
Opening Line: Pick ‘em
Current Line: Raiders -3
This matchup has seen the biggest spread shift so far and it looks as though the hype train in Cleveland still has plenty of empty seats. The Browns ended their 19-game winless streak last week, playing as a favorite for just the second time in Hue Jackson’s tenure. Baker Mayfield showed why he was the No. 1 overall pick leading the Brownies back from an early deficit to cover the 3-point closing line in a 21-17 victory. But a narrow win over the rebuilding Jets wasn’t a huge boost of confidence for the betting public.
The line opened at a pick ‘em and the Raiders were pounded. Within a matter of minutes the spread was up to Oakland -2.5 and eventually reached -3. There was some buyback that lowered the number by a half-point, but with over 80 percent of the public still backing the Silver and Black, the line crept back up to its current number.
New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars
Opening Line: Jaguars -9
Current Line: Jaguars -7.5
On paper this looks like a complete mismatch. A rebuilding Jets team with a rookie quarterback facing one of the best defenses in football shouldn’t offer much resistance. Buffalo’s win last week taught us one thing and that’s to never underestimate your opponent, so that little nugget is out there. If the Jags are to become an elite team they need to be more consistent. After waxing Tom Brady and the Pats in Week 2, the offense was no-show in a dismal 9-6 loss to the Titans as a 10-point favorite.
Sharps jumped on the Jets at +9 on the opening spread and kept pounding the visitors until the line dropped to +7.5. It’s hard to tell which Jacksonville team is going to show up, but you’d expect them to be a little pissed off after last week’s outcome. Darnold has shown flashes, but the Jets are looking ahead while the Jags’ time is now.
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