Recent rule changes have given offenses in the NFL a hefty advantage. One team that has made the most of it is the New Orleans Saints. And once again Drew Brees is guiding one of the most potent units in the league. Fresh off their first win of the season, the New York Giants host the Saints in a Week 4 tilt and you can bet this game now at BookMaker.eu.
The Saints are currently a 3-point favorite on the BookMaker.eu betting line, but the more appealing wager is on the total. Sure, the Saints can light it up and the total has been hammered early by the squares, pushing the number up a full point from its opening of 49 to the current 50. With over 80 percent of the early money backing the over, that number is likely to spike even higher before kickoff. However, recent form tells us the under is a better play and we’re calling his our fade the public play pick for the week.
Watch this Week 4 regular season matchup live on Sunday, September 30, 2018, at 4:25 p.m. ET at MetLife Stadium.
NFL Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
New Orleans Saints -3
New York Giants +3
Over/Under 50
The Saints are used to playing against a high total with each of their last four road games having a number of at least 50. The under is 2-2 in those games with both overs coming against NFC South opponents. And we know how those teams like to play offense. And as good as the Saints have been on offense, their defense has struggled mightily to stop anyone.
But we saw this last year from the Saints. They were atrocious at the beginning of the year and suddenly turned things around. The talent is there to be a good defensive team and the Giants aren’t the most potent offensively.
New York selected Saquon Barkley with the No. 2 overall pick exactly for this reason. The Giants will ride him, killing clock and keeping the ball out of Brees’ hands. They will throw the ball on occasion with Odell Beckham Jr. a threat on the outside, but when the Giants have possession, they will allow Barkley to control the tempo.
And the Giants have a pretty good defensive club. They allow just over 20 points per game and rank 15th in yards allowed. Granted, they haven’t played a team as efficient as the Saints, but the G-Men are a confident group after shutting down Deshaun Watson and the Texans last week for their first win. And the Giants could have key defensive players back in the lineup when they suit up on Sunday. Olivier Vernon has yet to play this season, but he’s near a recovery from the ankle injury that’s kept him sidelined.
Vernon is a big add to a team that desperately needs a pass rush. The Giants sacked Watson three times last week, which is more than they had in their first two games combined. They increased their total to four, which is tied for the second-lowest total in the league. Vernon is and edge rusher that can create some anxious moments for Brees. He had 15.5 sacks in his first two seasons with the Giants after signing as a free agent.
Having Eli Apple back in the secondary will also help against the Saints passing attack. Apple was one of the Giants better defenders in the season opener and had a stellar game against Dallas before getting hurt. The secondary can return to its normal alignment with Apple and Vernon back in tow, and that also gives them additional depth to counter the Saints tempo attack.
Outside of a pass rush, which will be solved when Vernon gets on the field, the Giants defense is similar in a lot of ways to Cleveland’s. The secondaries are young and athletic and the linebackers feed off the push up front. Both teams are nearly identical in their statistical rankings as well. And we saw the Saints have trouble at home against the Browns, who eliminated the big play and allowed Brees to dink and dunk. That resulted in a low-scoring game, and this one will as well.
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