I’m not sure what’s more difficult hitting a teaser or a parlay card when betting on the NFL. They both got the better of me in the early season, but like any hooked risk-taker I’m back for more with the hopes of hitting one big payday. I compare parlays to the game of golf in the simplest of ways. You can play 18 holes and all it takes is that one glorious shot to keep you coming back. I find the same thrill when playing a parlay, just that one great moment keeps me coming back.
One key to maximizing your payout on a winning parlay card is to pick a few underdogs on the moneyline, and upsets happen every week in the NFL. More than half the Week 3 games saw the underdog emerge with an outright victory, though some of the closing lines were less than a field goal. Of the nine winning dogs six of them were catching less than three points indicating the games could go either way. For the second straight week Jacksonville was the most impressive underdog. The Jags throttled Indy in Week 2 and blasted the Bolts 38-10 as a 7.5-point dog. They hit the Week 4 board catching 6.5-points against the unbeaten Eagles.
I had better luck on my parlays last week, but still didn’t win them all. And as you know all bets have to hit to cash a winning ticket. Heck, I can come close a few times and I’ll be back for more. So, without further ado let’s look ahead to Week 4 of the NFL season to string a few wins together for that big payout.
NFL Week 4 Betting Lines
Parlay Card Favorites
To increase the chances of producing a winning parlay card it’s always a good idea to back a few favorites. You could back the favored team in every wager if you wanted, but it does reduce the amount you would earn on a winning ticket. And taking the right favorite isn’t as easy as it seems. Only seven of 16 games saw the team laying points on the closing line end up with a victory in Week 3. I did back the Bears as a fave on last week’s card, which was a wise move. But the Chargers threw a wrench in my plans.
So, which favorites am I watching this week? Despite what Jerry Jones said there won’t be a quarterback controversy in Dallas. Cooper Rush led the Boys to a pair of wins in place of Dak Prescott and they get the team formerly known as the Redskins in Week 4. Dallas isn’t going to lead the NFL in scoring with Rush behind center, but they don’t need to with their defense. And I can see Micah Parsons and Co. creating problems for Carson Wentz. I’ll back the Boys at home in this one.
I know the Chargers aren’t as bad as they played last week so I’ll give them another go as a 5-point favorite against Houston. I’ll lay the points in this one hoping Justin Herbert is feeling better. And Davis Mills will have a tough time against a Bolts defense that got shredded by Trevor Lawrence.
Parlay Card Underdog Winners
Go big or go home is how the saying goes. I’m going big with the biggest dog on the board. It’s never good to underestimate Bill Belichick and I can hear the Packers breathing a sigh of relief knowing Mac Jones won’t be playing due to injury. As a result the Pats are a double-digit dog and +384 on the moneyline. New England turns to veteran Brian Hoyer for only his second start with the team, but he’s around to help develop Jones. And Hoyer has enjoyed success in the league.
More than anything else the Pats have been hurt by turnovers. They have the second-most giveaways in the NFL through three games putting additional pressure on what’s been a good defensive unit. The group has been great in the past and with a little help can be great again. They were wrecked by Lamar Jackson last week but don’t have to worry about Aaron Rodgers beating them on the ground. And like I said, never underestimate a Belichick-coached team.
After going against the Jags the last two weeks, it’s safe to say they’re a much better team than the train wreck under Urban Meyer. One big win might have been a fluke, but two in consecutive weeks shows that the team is a threat. And they didn’t beat just anybody they knocked off clubs most expect to be competing in the postseason by a combined score of 62-10. I’ll take them at +230 on the moneyline against the unbeaten Eagles.
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