At least I’m consistent on my NFL top total plays. For the second straight week I hit one of my three picks backing the UNDER in the San Francisco-Denver matchup. The teams were three touchdowns and three 2-point conversions shy of the closing total. Handicapping those teams made it an easy pick and it paid off. Unfortunately it doesn’t always work out that way as I saw in my other picks.
Points were scored in a variety of ways in Week 2 yet the UNDER still went 10-5-1 in all games. And despite the league being geared toward offense we’re seeing some stingy defensive efforts. Half of the NFL’s 32 teams scored 20 or fewer points last week with the UNDER cashing in nine of the 16 games. Through the first three weeks of the season the UNDER paid out in 62.5 percent of the games. It’s still early and things will likely change, but there are 11 teams averaging 17 points or less. Only three teams finished the 2021 season scoring fewer than 17 points per game.
One team I didn’t expect to be in the top-10 in scoring is Jacksonville yet here they are averaging 28 points through three weeks. Trevor Lawrence is thriving under the guidance of Doug Pederson and the Jags lead the AFC South. I wasn’t convinced after they handed it to Indy in Week 2 and bet the UNDER for their game against the Chargers. Lawrence tossed a trio of scoring passes in the Jags’ 38-10 win to beat me by a point.
I will make adjustments and come out stronger on my top total plays in Week 4 of the NFL season.
NFL Week 4 Betting Lines
Top Total Plays Of Week 4
Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders
Pick: OVER 45.5
Sooner or later Russell Wilson will do what he does and the Broncos’ offense will be the feared unit most expected it to be. That hasn’t been the case yet with Denver failing to score more than 16 points in any game. The Broncos have the talented skill players to erupt and the Raiders’ defense has been sporadic in three straight losses. I also anticipate Vegas will be more aggressive searching for their first win.
Two supposed offensive mastermind coaches have yet to showcase their talents and it’s not because their teams don’t have players. Nathaniel Hackett better make an impression soon because I don’t think the Broncos defense can be as good as it’s been for the entire season. And if Josh McDaniels fails again he may not get another chance. That’s probably a little more in depth than it needs to be, but I think the clubs can reach the relatively low total.
Chicago Bears at New York Giants
Pick: UNDER 39.5
The percentages say bet the UNDER and that’s what I’m going to do in this matchup. Try as they might both clubs just can’t put together an offense that scares people. The Bears are 2-1 against the UNDER this season while the Giants are 2-0-1. The teams have also cashed the UNDER in each of the previous three meetings averaging a combined total of 31.7 points.
Both clubs have been strong on defense so there isn’t even the hope one team could take advantage of the others weakness. Instead we have the weaknesses struggling to get points, something they haven’t done with any consistency this year. The teams have run the football well this season and sticking with that game plan increases our chances of hitting a winner with clock rolling. We just hope Saquon Barkley and Khalil Herbert don’t bust free for long scores.
Minnesota Vikings vs. New Orleans Saints
Pick: UNDER 43.5
I don’t know about you but traveling to London to play a football game isn’t high on my list of things to do. For one I’m not a professional athlete, so there’s that, and working through jet lag, customs, and all the other stuff is a drain. The NFL product has been decent but three of the previous four games in London failed to produce more than 43 points.
And it’s not like the Vikings and Saints are offensive juggernauts. New Orleans has slipped a bunch since the retirement of Drew Brees and Sean Payton. The Saints scored 24 points total in their last two games with Jameis Winston showing fans why the Buccaneers gave up on him. I don’t have much confidence in Kirk Cousins against a good Saints defense leaving the UNDER a winner on my top total plays.
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