You can officially say I’m on a heater with my teaser picks. For the second straight week we cashed a three-team winner, though we didn’t need to tease the lines and total for the Week 5 picks. Beating the house every so often is a good feeling and keeps the betting public coming back for more. And since sportsbooks aren’t in business to pay out every week, we know things will change. The key obviously is to win more than you lose and going back-to-back puts us in a good spot moving forward.
Playing the three Week 5 games on a parlay or as a single bet would’ve paid more, but I’m not greedy and I don’t have a crystal ball so I’ll take the wins and move forward. Backing the Niners at -6.5 was a winner, but reducing the line to -0.5 was the clincher. As it turns out the Niners got Matt Rhule fired with their 37-15 triumph. Teasing the Cowboys to +11.5 in their game with the Rams was a good move, but it didn’t have to be made. Dallas won outright 22-10 behind another solid defensive effort. The Boys are now 4-0 SU and ATS with Cooper Rush starting.
We always seem to get points when the Raiders and Chiefs clash and Monday’s tilt was no different. KC prevailed 30-29 exceeding the total of 51 and giving me another three-team winner. I guess you could think of the purchased points as an insurance policy since they’re always nice to have even if you don’t need them. Now is not the time to get overconfident because things change every week. With that said it’s time to move ahead to the Week 6 schedule to see what lines can be teased to produce another winning ticket.
NFL Week 6 Betting Lines
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts
Opening Line: Jaguars +2
Teaser Line: Jaguars +8
The strategy when teasing a line is to take it across key numbers. And that’s exactly what we’re doing here by pushing the Jags from a 2-point dog to +8 jumping over 3, 6 and 7. Kind of like splitting aces it doesn’t always work, but the percentages are in your favor. The Jags have won two straight and four of the previous six meetings while earning payouts in the last seven. They harassed Matt Ryan in Week 2 earning a 24-0 victory.
Jacksonville is in a tailspin losing two straight with Trevor Lawrence accounting for seven turnovers in those games. He’s been around long enough now to know what he needs to do and we should see the former No. 1 overall pick get back to what made him so successful earlier in the year. And I certainly don’t expect the Colts to go off on a stingy Jags defense making the teased line look even better.
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles
Opening Line: Cowboys +6
Teaser Line: Cowboys +12
I did this last week and it worked so why not do it again? Sure the Eagles are undefeated and Jalen Hurts is off to a good start, but I don’t think he’s faced a defense as disruptive as the Cowboys. I backed Dallas at +11.5 on the teased line against the Rams and the D turned in another sparkling game holding LA to 38 rushing yards and sacking Matthew Stafford five times. The Boys have the second-most sacks in the NFL and are tied for second with a plus-5 turnover margin.
They need to be good since the offense is still a work in progress under Cooper Rush, but they’re winning games. The Boys are 4-0 with Rush at the helm, though Dak Prescott is getting close to a return. This game should be close and increasing the line has Dallas in a good position to cover.
New York Jets at Green Bay Packers
Opening Line: Jets +7
Teaser Line: Jets +13
The Jets are off to a nice start boasting the same record as Green Bay through five weeks. They aren’t getting the recognition, though, as evidenced by the opening line. One thing the Jets don’t have is Aaron Rodgers and he’s always scary to bet against, especially on the frozen tundra. This is a weird spot for the Pack, though. We’ve seen teams get a bye after playing overseas but that’s not the case. The Packers are back at it after a demoralizing loss to the Giants in London.
All that travel has an impact and the Jets are feeling confident after beating Pittsburgh and Miami. And I think they’re better than most people realize. They may not win the game, but jacking the line up to nearly two touchdowns should keep them within the spread.
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