It looks to be another hectic week on the NFL betting lines with early movement all over the board. We have just a 14-game slate in Week 7 of the NFL regular season as more teams start to take their bye, and one game has yet to have a spread and total hit the board. Oddsmakers are waiting on news from Miami regarding Ryan Tannehill before posting a line. That didn’t affect the Fins last week as they rolled over the Bears behind backup Brock Osweiler as a 7.5-point underdog.
Eight of the 13 games with an opening line have already seen some movement. The most significant shifts came in favor of Buffalo and Jacksonville. The Bills opened as a 9.5-point underdog against the Colts and currently sit at +7.5. The Jags saw their line against the Texans increase from -3.5 to -5.5. Let’s take a look at a few games that have seen some shifting in the line since the numbers hit the board.
Week 7 Major Line Moves
Buffalo Bills at Indianapolis Colts
Opening Line: Colts -9.5
Current Line: Colts -7.5
To the naked eye this line appeared too high to begin with and the major shift is simply getting the planets aligned. If Buffalo is a 16.5-point dog on the road in Minnesota, they certainly are not close to a double-dog against the Colts. The Bills are in deep trouble with the likelihood that Josh Allen isn’t going to play due to an injury. That leaves Nathan Pickerman, I mean Peterman, in line to start. There’s a reason why we didn’t see Peterman after his awful showing in Week 1, and that’s because he simply doesn’t belong on a NFL roster. And that’s also why the Bills signed veteran Derek Anderson.
The Colts have had troubles of their own and that’s why the public was flocking to the early points. Indy does have one edge, and it’s a big one. Andrew Luck is far better than anyone the Bills run out there, and that should be worth a few points. Even the current line seems too high and I expect this one to tumble before kickoff.
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars
Opening Line: Jaguars -3.5
Current Line: Jaguars -5.5
Coming off a pair of ugly losses, the Jags are still getting plenty of support with 62 percent of the early action favoring the home team in this AFC South matchup. The Jags opened at -3.5 and the line spiked two full points in a short time. It’s easy to blame resident punching bag Blake Bortles for the team’s failures the last two weeks, but the problems run much deeper. Jacksonville’s defense was shredded by KC and Dallas for 332 rushing yards and 70 points in a couple of blowouts.
Keep in mind, however, that the Jags have the same record at this point in the season that they had last year. And we all know what happened. Houston brings a three-game winning streak into this matchup and will attempt to get a leg up in the division. Along with Tennessee the teams are tied atop the AFC South entering Week 7, so this sets up to be a huge matchup. The Jags swept the series last year, outscoring Houston 75-14, but they faced Deshaun Watson for just the second half of the first game.
New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons
Opening Line: Falcons -4.5
Current Line: Falcons -5.5
A classic case of the sharps pushing the line has transpired in early betting for the Week 7 Monday Night Football game. The Giants are getting a majority of the action but the spread increased by a point with the Falcons moving to -5.5. Neither team has instilled a lot of confidence in backers with their recent play, but the Falcons have been less of a soap opera and they have a quarterback who is putting up numbers and winning games.
The Falcons will have to outscore opponents with their defense being a shell of what it once was due to significant injuries to key players. Atlanta snapped a three-game SU and ATS losing streak last week, but the Birds gave up 512 yards and 29 points to the Bucs. Over their last four outings, the Falcons have surrendered an average of 37.5 points 458.5 yards per contest, so there is hope that Eli Manning and the Giants can finally find some offense.
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