If you want to win money betting NFL games then you need to be willing to take teams no one else wants to bet. We refer to these teams as ugly dogs and you really have to hold your nose sometimes when you bet on them, but history has shown that going against the public works. We went 4-1 with the picks in Week 6 and that takes the season record to 15-16-1. After having five picks last week, we have just two picks for week 7. Let’s take a look at the Week 7 Ugly Dog picks.
Week 7 Ugly Dog Picks
New York Jets +13 vs. Buffalo Bills
If it wasn’t for the Jets, we would have a winning record on the season. New York is the only team in the NFL that has yet to cover the spread, as New York is a pathetic 0-6 SU and ATS. And none of the games have really been close, as the Jets have been getting blown out on a weekly basis. Running back Frank Gore came out and ripped into the team this past week, but whether it will make any difference is the question. We have said for weeks now that Adam Gase is a rotten head coach and that continues to be proven correct. It doesn’t look like ownership has any desire to replace him right now and it could be that the owner has decided to just tank this season and get the No. 1 pick in next year’s NFL Draft.
It is hard to take a team as bad as the Jets each week, but that is the point of this column. The question is when will oddsmakers adjust enough so that we start getting some wins when taking the points. There comes a time when oddsmakers have to make the line big enough to attract some wise guy money. This week the Jets are getting nearly two touchdowns at home to Buffalo. Have the oddsmakers gone far enough? This week will be a good test, as rarely do you see a team getting nearly two touchdowns at home. We don’t like taking the Jets, as they have yet to get us a win, but we have no choice, so we take the Jets plus the points as an ugly dog in Week 7.
Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5 at Los Angeles Chargers
Any thought people had about the Jaguars being a competitive team this season appear to be over. The Jaguars are not as bad as the Jets, but in terms of their record they are only one game better at 1-5. We knew that Jacksonville was going to struggle this season, but early in the year they scored a lot of points and looked competitive with a win over the Colts and a close loss to Tennessee. Those games look more like mirages now, as the Jaguars lost to a struggling Cincinnati team, gave the Texans their only win of the season, and were blown out by a bad Detroit team.
There is not much question now that Gardner Minshew is not the answer at quarterback. He can run around and make a few plays, but he is not a franchise quarterback. Head coach Doug Marrone has even indicated that Minshew could be benched if his poor play continues. This week the Jaguars go on the road to face a Los Angeles Chargers team that is just 1-4 on the season. This would seem to be a perfect spot for the Chargers to get well. We will take the Jaguars plus the points as an ugly dog.
There is one other team that we didn’t put in the ugly dog category this week, but it was close. The Denver Broncos are getting 9.5 points at home against Kansas City, but the Broncos have won two straight games and are just a game under .500. It is debatable whether they are truly an ugly dog, so we left them off the official plays for this week.
Check out the latest NFL Week 7 Odds at BookMaker Sportsbook!
