Sometimes teasing lines on NFL games can tease your emotions. After three straight weeks of three-team winners I came within an eyelash of extending that major heater only to be undone by the underachieving Indianapolis Colts. It looks like the betting Gods were going to get back some of the coin they lost this month. Oh well, I can’t complain too much after the successful run and just like in sports you can’t win them all. Things always have a way of evening out so maybe I was due. But damn that outcome still gets me.
I worked a couple of winners backing the Raiders at -1 on the teased line. It was scary there for a moment until the Silver and Black busted out with a 21-0 fourth quarter run to wipe out a 20-17 deficit. The Raiders ended up covering the original line of -7. Taking the UNDER in a Giants game will get you more winners than losers, and I won last week in New York’s matchup with Jacksonville. Again I didn’t need to tease the total but it sure made the final quarter easier to watch. Moving the total to 48 seemed like a no-brainer and it was. The Giants won 23-17 with the score falling below the opening total of 42.
One stinking point, that’s what prevented me from another winning week. Taking the Colts and 8.5-points on the teased line just added to the misery. Things looked good into the fourth quarter with a field goal cutting their deficit to six points. However, the Titans countered with a field goal with less than five minutes left and the Colts turned the ball over on their final possession leaving me with a loss for the first time in four weeks. It’s off to Week 8 of the NFL schedule to see if we can get back to our winning ways on teaser picks.
NFL Week 8 Betting Lines
Washington Commanders at Indianapolis Colts
Opening Line: Commanders +3
Teaser Line: Commanders +9
The Matt Ryan experiment didn’t work forcing the Colts to turn to Sam Ehlinger. Sure Ryan had his problems with interceptions and fumbles but the mess isn’t all his fault and I’m not sure Ehlinger is going to make a huge difference. There’s a chance the QB swap has a positive reaction with the club, but the offense floundered under a proven veteran and it’s hard to imagine things changing quickly.
Riding a two-game winning streak the team formerly known as the Redskins is also utilizing a backup QB. Taylor Heinicke gets the reins for injured Carson Wentz and is a proven commodity in the NFL. But Washington relies on defense and the ground game to win allowing Heinicke to manage the game rather than control it. They’ve played some tight games the last three weeks and teasing the line to +9 has me backing the Commanders.
Denver Broncos at Jacksonville Jaguars
Opening Total: 39.5
Teaser Total: 33.5
I was originally going to back the under in this matchup but teasing the total to 33.5 was too good to pass up so I’m going with the OVER. With Denver’s Nathaniel Hackett the front runner to be the next coach fired and Russell Wilson expected to return there’s a good chance the Broncos score more than their NFL worst 14.3 points per game.
Both clubs are strong defensively hence the low total, but they have a solid foundation on offense. And it’s baffling why the teams have had so much difficulty scoring. The Jags actually aren’t bad moving the football with the seventh-most yards gained, but silly penalties and turnovers have been a problem. I do see a few touchdowns scored and wouldn’t be surprised to see the defenses get in on the act, pushing the score over a low teased total.
Green Bay Packers at Buffalo Bills
Opening Line: Packers +11
Teaser Line: Packers +17
Spot Aaron Rodgers 17 points and you should win, right? Well, that’s what I’m counting on in Green Bay’s encounter with Buffalo. It could be that all the veteran QBs around the league have surpassed their expiration date. Rodgers, Russell Wilson and Tom Brady are struggling while Matt Ryan has already been replaced. Or they are just going through a rough patch. Injuries to top receivers Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb have hurt Rodgers the most, though he’s still been productive.
We saw several big favorites upset last week and I’m not ready to dismiss Rodgers and the Pack just yet. We saw Rodgers make a bold statement a few seasons ago after a rough start and the club responded. The Packers better have a response this week before the season slips further away.
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