It was another good week on my NFL total plays hitting two of three to put me further in the black. After a rough start I’ve gone 9-3 over the last four weeks with both under picks coming through in Week 7. It shouldn’t be that much of a surprise since 57.9 percent of the games ended below the closing total. The games were evenly split last week with seven cashing the UNDER. For just the second time this season we didn’t have more games end below the total, but we still haven’t had a week with more OVERS.
Backing the UNDER has been profitable since I hit on 66.7 percent of those bets. The percentage increased with a pair of wins last week. There were some anxious moments in the Giants-Jags game but the teams eventually came through finishing below the total of 42. New York stopped Christian Kirk one-yard short of the goal line on the game’s final play to preserve a 23-17 victory. The Steelers and Dolphins played a scoreless second half to easily cash the UNDER in their tilt. Miami built a 16-10 lead at the break and held on to deliver another winner.
They say close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades with the AFC North contest between Cleveland and Baltimore dealing my only loss. It looked promising early in the fourth quarter when the Browns scored to make it 23-20. However two turnovers a punt and a blocked field goal over the final four possessions left the score where it was falling just short of the 45.5 total. Oh well, you can’t win them all, but I’ll keep trying as I move ahead to Week 8 of the NFL schedule to see what total plays will help improve my record.
NFL Week 8 Betting Lines
Top Total Plays Of Week 8
Miami Dolphins at Detroit Lions
Pick: UNDER 51.5
After a blistering start to the season the Lions have fallen with an ear-shattering thud. The NFL’s highest scoring team through the first four weeks has just two field goals in the last two games. Miami started hot as well and has since faded after Tua Tagovailoa was injured and missed time. Eliminate their outburst in Baltimore in Week 2 when Tua tossed six TD passes in a 42-38 win, the Dolphins haven’t scored more than 21 points in any other contest. And Tua’s only TD passes on the road were in that game.
It’s hard to say what exactly happened to Detroit. Injuries have been an issue and Jared Goff is their quarterback. I guess that pretty much sums it up. I don’t think the Lions are as bad as they’ve been the last two games and they certainly aren’t as good as they were the first four. Finding middle ground is key and that still puts this one under the total.
Denver Broncos vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Pick: UNDER 45.5
A defense that prevents points and an offense that can’t produce them makes Denver a strong pick against the UNDER. The Broncos should be bolstered by the expected return of Russell Wilson, but even he hasn’t been able to solve the puzzle. The Broncos scored more than 16 points just once and they are the lowest scoring team averaging 14.3 points. You expect them to bust out but at this point they are who they are.
The Jags are struggling too with Trevor Lawrence regressing after a strong start. They can move the ball, but a lack of discipline and turnovers have been costly. Even if they figure that out they aren’t likely to have much success against a stingy Broncos stop group.
Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints
Pick: OVER 50
I guess I have to toss an OVER pick in here and this game is the likely choice. The Saints have had problems stopping teams recently allowing at least 30 points in three consecutive games. The offense was responsible for two opponent touchdowns last week with Andy Dalton tossing a pair of pick-sixes. And despite three turnovers the Saints still scored 34 points.
With Josh Jacobs having a career season the Raiders have balance in the offense they’ve been looking for. Derek Carr is at his best when not being forced to make things happen. Instead he’s relying on the ground game and the pass attack has flourished as a result. I don’t see either defense offering much resistance allowing this game to exceed the total.
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