Unlike last week when the closing spreads were all over the board, the opening lines for Week 9 of the 2018 NFL regular season schedule are much closer. Seven games currently have a spread of a field goal or less and just two have a line of more than a touchdown. News out of Buffalo that Nathan Peterman would start on Sunday against Chicago caused a seismic shift in that spread. The Bears opened at -8 and jumped to -10 shortly after the announcement.
Cleveland parted ways with Hue Jackson earlier in the week ahead of the Browns contest with Kansas City. Mid-season coaching changes have a tendency to shake things up and teams usually respond under new leadership. That might happen in Cleveland this weekend, but the betting public doesn’t think so. The line opened at KC -9 and stayed there with the Chiefs garnering over 80 percent of action through the middle of the week. Let’s take a more in depth look at a few games that have seen some shifting in the line since the numbers hit the board.
Week 9 Major Line Moves
Chicago Bears at Buffalo Bills
Opening Line: Bears -8
Current Line: Bears -10
We’re about halfway through the season and the Bears can officially be called a contender after posting a 4-3 record and sitting atop the NFC North heading into the weekend. The Bears were on the path to respectability, but the acquisition of Khalil Mack just before the season opener helped expedite the process. They have an entertaining offense led by second-year quarterback Mitchell Trubisky and an abundance of playmakers. For the first time in a few seasons, they won’t be finishing at the bottom of the points per game category.
The Bills are going the other way and their offense is worse than anything the Bears had under John Fox. To make matters worse, they are turning to Nathan Peterman as their starter on Sunday. Yes, the same Nathan Peterman who threw five interceptions in the first half of his first career start. The Bears opened as 8-point chalk and with Josh Allen and Derek Anderson out with injuries, the line spiked to double-digits. If the current number holds, it’ll be the first time since 2012 that the Bears are laying double digits.
Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints
Opening Line: Rams -1
Current Line: Saints -1.5
The game of the week and possibly the season takes place in the Big Easy with a battle of NFC heavyweights. Given how strong the teams are this is expected to be a close matchup and the early line movement seems to back that theory. The Rams opened as a 1-point favorite before slowly being wagered the other way and jumping the fence in favor of the home team. The Rams have been favored on the closing line by at least 6.5 points in every game, so this is new to them.
The Rams are the lone remaining unbeaten and between them the teams have won 14 consecutive games. There is the potential for plenty offensive fireworks in this one with both teams averaging at least 33 points per game. The Saints are coming off two impressive road wins, manhandling the Vikings last week and catching a break the week before in Baltimore. They’ve been good to their backers too, covering the spread in each of their last five games.
Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots
Opening Line: Patriots -7
Current Line: Patriots -5.5
We saw last week what spotting Aaron Rodgers a bunch of points does. And it happened again on the opening line for this matchup. But this isn’t any game, this is a matchup between two of the best to ever quarterback in the NFL. Facing the biggest point spread in his career, Rodgers and the Packers nearly knocked off the undefeated Rams on the road, and they may have done just that if Rodgers was given a chance. Instead, Ty Montgomery returned a kickoff out of the end zone and fumbled the ball away. Rodgers never had a chance at another dramatic comeback.
The Packers covered the spread, though it mattered little. And Rodgers was spotted a touchdown on the opening line of this game. He’s one guy that can match up with Tom Brady, and the public took notice, backing the Packers with plenty of early support. Two of the greatest going head-to-head in primetime will get plenty of attention from the hardcore and casual fans, and the line that’s already shifted 1.5 points in favor of the Packers is likely going to move around even more before kickoff.
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