With the playoff field set for Super Wild Card Weekend we will see some familiar matchups with all three NFC games a rematch from the regular season and the contest between Pittsburgh and Baltimore the third meeting of the year between AFC North foes. It’s called the second season for a reason with the losing teams packing up for the year. And those earlier games have no impact on what occurs this weekend. With five straight wins entering the postseason the Commanders are the hottest team in the NFL and travel to Tampa for a NFC showdown with the Bucs. Likely Rookie of the Year Jayden Daniels made his NFL debut in a 37-20 loss to Tampa Bay in Week 1, but he’s come a long way since and I’m not sure there’s a player more valuable to his team. The Bucs are a 3-point favorite at the Crypto sportsbook for the Sunday night showdown.
On the strength of a four-game winning streak and four straight losses by Pittsburgh to close the regular season, the Ravens won the division. Included in the run was a 34-17 win over the Steelers in Week 16 with Baltimore scoring their most points in the series with Lamar Jackson behind center. Much will be made about Jackson’s playoff failures and even more will be said should the Ravens fall as the biggest favorite on the wild card board laying 10-points. Buffalo isn’t far behind as a 9-point favorite to beat Denver on Sunday. Josh Allen had a MVP type season leading the Bills to 10 wins in 11 games before sitting out the finale. Half the games have a spread of a field goal or less with Philadelphia laying 4-points in its matchup with Green Bay.
NFL Betting Lines
NFL Wild Card Round Parlay Picks
Rams +1 vs. Vikings
Steelers +10 at Ravens
Commanders / Buccaneers OVER 50.5
Take away the last three weeks of the regular season and I did well on my parlay picks. Hopefully the slump ended at Week 18 when three of my picks ended up losers. With a lot of teams locked into a playoff spot we didn’t see their best in the regular season finale. With the No. 1 seed in the NFC on the line the Vikings trotted out their top guys and promptly had the worst game of the year in a 31-9 loss to Detroit. So with 14 wins the No. 5 seed packs its bags for the West Coast and a date with the Rams on Monday night. The Rams were the only team other than Detroit to beat Minnesota and score 30 points against them.
With Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp in the lineup after missing several games due to injury, Matthew Stafford threw four TD passes in the 30-20 win. And what makes LA scary is their young defense allowed less than 10 points in three straight games to secure the NFC West title ahead of the Week 18 setback when regulars took a seat. The Vikes are in a tough spot after losing out on the No. 1 seed. We’ve never seen a 14-win fifth-seed and they are on the road for the third time in four weeks.
The Steelers stumbled down the stretch losing their grip on the AFC North and a home playoff game. In a series that saw nine straight games decided by seven points or less before Baltimore’s Week 16 blowout, it’s hard to pass on the points. The Steelers will need more offense, though, since they failed to score more than 17 points in any game of their current slide. They’ve also done a good job keeping Lamar Jackson in check that is until the last game. The Steelers can get back to what’s made them successful meaning they have to be tougher on defense. They rank among the top 10 in fewest points allowed and can’t let Jackson exploit their 25th ranked pass defense.
The total of 50.5 in the Washington-Tampa Bay game is the largest on the board and we typically see a tighter brand of football in the playoffs. I’m bucking the trend and backing the OVER with two high-flying offenses that produced 57 points in Week 1. That was before Jayden Daniels got his feet wet leading the fifth ranked scoring offense. And Baker Mayfield had the best season of his career throwing 35 TD passes for the fourth-highest scoring offense.
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