The first weekend of the NFL playoffs certainly lived up to its name with three of the four road underdogs winning their Wild Card game outright. It wasn’t a surprise to see all four home teams favored, but it was watching three of them lose with none of them covering the final spread for a second straight season. In a single-elimination game there is more emphasis on having home field advantage, but that hasn’t been the case over the past two seasons.
Dallas was the only favorite to win on the money line, posting a 24-22 victory over Seattle in the Wild Card Round as a 2.5-point favorite. The Seahawks got the backdoor cover, though, scoring a late touchdown and 2-point conversion for the final score. This was also the only game to go over the closing total with the team’s combining to eclipse the final number of 43.
The dogs continued a hot streak in the Wild Card Round that started last season when teams getting points posted a 2-2 straight up record and swept the four games against the spread. Since the 2017 postseason, underdogs on Wild Card Weekend are 5-3 SU and 8-0 ATS. We’ve also witnessed some low-scoring games with the under cashing in three of four games in each of the last two seasons.
NFL Wild Card Weekend Betting Summary
| WAGER |
Favorite/Underdog |
| Straight Up |
1 - 3 |
| ATS |
0 – 4 |
| WAGER |
Total (O/U) |
| Over/Under |
1 – 3 |
Wild Card Weekend Betting Recap
You can credit the magic of Nick Foles for the Eagles pulling off the biggest upset of Wild Card Weekend. Philly was a 6.5-point dog on the closing line for its matchup with the Bears, and no way was an ailing Foles going to produce against the league’s best defense. Well, he didn’t have an outstanding game, throwing for 266 yards and a pair of interceptions. And the Eagles managed 300 yards, but Foles delivered when it mattered, tossing a touchdown pass to Golden Tate late in the fourth quarter that put Philly on top.
The real hero for the Eagles was Bears kicker Cody Parkey, who banged a 43-yard game-winning field goal attempt off the upright. It was Parkey’s 11th missed kick of the season and at least the fifth that hit the goalpost. The Bears haven’t had a reliable kicker since parting ways with Robbie Gould a few years back and this one came back to haunt them.
We could say Foles has a presence this time of year, and we wouldn’t be far off. He is after all 9-1 in games started in December and beyond over the last two seasons. The only blemish was a loss to Dallas in last season’s regular season finale when the Eagles had the No. 1 seed in the NFC locked up and Foles played only a few series. The Boys won 6-0. So we could say he’s perfect in such games and no matter how far the Eagles go this year, the question of who should quarterback the team moving forward is going to come up again. In fact, it already has.
The other three games on Wild Card Weekend all had a closing line of a field goal or less, so there wasn’t much separation between the clubs. All six teams recorded at least 10 wins during the regular season, making the games even closer. And the results proved just how parity is working in the NFL.
When teams are so evenly matched, it’s difficult for one side to win twice in a season. The Chargers proved our point by knocking off Baltimore, 23-17, just two weeks after being stifled in a 22-10 home loss. The Bolts had a better regular season record by two games, and they made their adjustments to pull out the victory as a 3-point dog. LA’s defense silenced the home crowd this week, holding Lamar Jackson and the Ravens to just a field goal through the first three quarters.
The Bolts did what they had to in order to win the football game, limiting the Ravens ground attack to 90 yards and forcing Jackson to throw the football. Jackson had just 25 passing yards through three quarters. A late outburst got the Ravens within six points and they had the ball with a chance for a game-tying touchdown drive. However, the Bolts recorded the last of their seven sacks, forcing a fumble to pull out the win.
The Chiefs better be on the lookout after Indy dominated Houston to win its Wild Card game, 21-7. As good as Andrew Luck has been during a streak where the Colts have won 10 of 11 games, the defense has been better. The group shut down Deshaun Watson and Indy was never threatened, building a 21-0 lead in the first half. The Colts are 7-3-1 ATS during their run.
NFL Betting Odds
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