You don’t often see a team score 51 points, but the Green Bay Packers welcomed Aaron Rodgers back to Lambeau Field with a thrashing of the Pittsburgh Steelers last week. It had been nearly a year since Rodgers last stepped on the frozen tundra and it looked like he hadn’t missed a thing. Rodgers directed a touchdown drive on his only possession, hooking up with his new favorite target Jimmy Graham, and the avalanche of points was underway. With his one series executed to perfection, we’re unlikely to see Rodgers when the Pack takes on the Oakland Raiders in Week 3 of the preseason.
This duel in Week 3 of the preseason will go down Friday, August 24, 2018, at 10:30 p.m. ET from the Oakland Coliseum. The game will be televised live on NFL Network.
NFL Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
Green Bay Packers +7
Oakland Raiders -7
Over/Under 41
Odds Analysis
We don’t typically see lines this high in the preseason, but with Rodgers not expected to play in the dress rehearsal, the Raiders opened as a touchdown favorite. Oakland will play it’s starters for a good amount after the team used mostly reserves in last week’s game. Still, seven points is a lot for a tune up game. The total opened at 41 and is well within reach for teams looking to crank up the offense.
Quarterback Rotation
Rodgers was seen working with the scout team in practice early this week, leading most observers to believe his preseason work is done. The two-time MVP looked in mid-season form in his only series against the Steelers, putting together a 40-yard touchdown drive by completing 2 of 4 passes for 35 yards with an 8-yard scoring strike to Jimmy Graham.
If Rodgers doesn’t play, Brett Hundley is in line to get the start. Hundley had his issues as the starter last season filling in for Rodgers, but he’s looked comfortable in the pocket this preseason and went 6 of 9 for 77 yards with a 10-yard touchdown run against the Steelers. He’s completed 65.2 percent of his passes this preseason and has a leg up on DeShone Kizer for the backup job. Kizer tossed a pair of touchdowns last week, including an 82-yard catch and run with Jake Kumerow to inflate his yardage total.
Faced with an unusual scheduling situation last week, the Raiders sat a majority of their would-be starters, including Derek Carr. Facing the Rams, a team they open the season against, the playbook stayed in Jon Gruden’s office, and Carr watched in sweats. You can expect to see plenty of Carr this week as he’s played just one series so far.
The Raiders didn’t muster much offense with Connor Cook getting the start last week. They were blanked in the first half, managed just one first down and 58 total yards while going 0 for 6 on third downs. Cook was 6 of 12 with 49 yards and E.J. Manuel finished 10 of 16 for 89 yards with the team’s only touchdown.
Player to Watch
With Oakland’s first-team offense expected to play the first half, Jordy Nelson will have a chance to stick it to his former team. Nelson spent the first 10 years of his career in Green Bay and became a favorite target of Rodgers. Nelson had a career-best 1,519 receiving yards in 2014 but blew out his knee the following preseason and missed the entire 2015 campaign.
Nelson returned in 2016 and led the NFL with 14 touchdown receptions while hauling in 97 passes. His numbers dipped considerably last season and he was unceremoniously released this offseason in a move that dumbfounded Rodgers. The Raiders were quick to sign him and he’s expected to replace the production of Michael Crabtree.
Free ATS Pick
The Raiders are itching to get back on the field after a majority of their starters watched last week’s game. And the entire team got the wrath of Gruden, who called his team’s offensive performance “flat out embarrassing.” We should see more from the silver and black on Friday night.
This won’t be a typical dress rehearsal for the Packers, who are likely to sit Rodgers. And we’ve seen just how ugly things can get when he doesn’t play. We’ve seen improved play this preseason from Hundley and he’ll get another chance to start, but the Raiders will simply be too much. I do expect the Packers to hang close and the spread is big for a tune-up game. Take Green Bay and the points in this one.
NFL Betting Odds: Raiders 27, Packers 23
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