Propositional bets are a fun way to spice up ones NFL wagering experience, and what better way to do that than looking at one of the most electrifying players in the league. For as much as Patrick Mahomes has accomplished you’d think he’s been slinging the football for more than three seasons. A league MVP, Super Bowl champion and MVP, and three-time Pro Bowler, Mahomes has done more in his brief time than most players accomplish in an entire career.
And with that success come increased expectations, as evidenced by some of the props for the QB. The pairing of Mahomes with Andy Reid vaulted the Chiefs up the NFL list of elite. They reached the AFC Championship in all three seasons with Mahomes as the starter making it to the Super Bowl in the last two. Surprisingly the best season for Mahomes came in 2018 when the Chiefs lost to Tom Brady and the Patriots in the conference title game. The Chiefs led the NFL in scoring that year and placed among the top six in each of the last two. With his ability to make things happen and playmakers surrounding him KC should again be among the league leaders. Will Mahomes cash any of the numerous props on the menu? Let’s take a look.
Patrick Mahomes Prop Bet Odds
Total Passing Yards
Over 5,050 -115
Under 5,050 -115
Oddsmakers might have been a little overzealous on this prop bet. Only 12 times in the history of the NFL has a quarterback thrown for more than 5,000 yards in a season. Mahomes was one of them doing so in his MVP season of 2018 with 5,097 yards. Mahomes did a lot of special things that year and while he’s been great since he hasn’t come close to reaching that output. Maybe opposing defenses are starting to catch up.
Mahomes had more pass attempts and completions in 2020 than he did in 2018 and still amassed 357 fewer yards through the air. The offense will look different in 2021 with Sammy Watkins heading elsewhere leaving a hole, at least at the start of the season, in one receiver spot. While Watkins wasn’t a main target and he missed time due to injury, he was a reliable option and one Mahomes had confidence in. That probably won’t be the case with the guys fighting to take over the role.
The offensive line will be stronger than it was in the touchdown-less Super Bowl loss to Tampa, but that also allows Clyde Edwards-Helaire to have a bigger role in the running game taking throws away from the QB. I really like the UNDER in this prop.
You can also look at a prop for Mahomes to lead the league in passing yards, which is something he has yet to do in his career. Even during his MVP season Mahomes finished behind Ben Roethlisberger in passing yards and he was second to Deshaun Watson last year. As long as he stays healthy Mahomes will definitely rank near the top of the stats board and he has enough weapons in a pass-friendly offense to do it this season. I’ll take the +350 for him to finish on top.
Total Passing Touchdowns
Over 39.5 +110
Under 39.5 -140
The Chiefs have been one of the highest scoring teams in Mahomes’ tenure finishing among the top six in each of his three full seasons. Averaging 29.6 points last season was their lowest tally but still a high number considering how few teams reached the 30-point threshold. The 2020 season was an exception with five teams averaging more than 30 points per game.
Considering Mahomes threw 38 touchdown passes last season and averages that many over the last three years, this is a reachable number with positive juice backing it up. Mecole Hardman may not be the receiver Watkins was between the 20s, but he’s a big body who can win battles in tight spaces. He may end up being the top red-zone target. And big play Tyreek Hill can score from anywhere on the field. The Chiefs will put up points and positive odds on the OVER have me leaning that way.
NFL MVP +400
Quarterbacks have dominated MVP voting with 13 winners of the top honor over the last 14 seasons. The only non-QB to win MVP during that stretch was Adrian Peterson and it took a near record-breaking season to do it. Mahomes can definitely put up the required numbers and since it’s been a few years since he won the honor it might be time for voters to circle back to KC. He was deserving of the award last year and the Super Bowl setback will only serve as inspiration for the Chiefs and Mahomes to have another big season.
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