It’s not a surprise seeing the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship Game since this is their eighth straight appearance. But it is rare to see them as the underdog. The Pats opened as a 3-point dog at BookMaker.eu for the AFC Championship Game against the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday. The Chiefs, meanwhile, put their playoff jinx behind them by knocking off the Colts in the Divisional Round to reach their first conference title tilt since the 1993 season and just the second in team history. Ironically, the AFC champion receives the Lamar Hunt Trophy, named in honor of the former Chiefs owner, yet his team has never won the hardware.
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AFC Championship Game at a Glance
New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs
Date and Time: Sunday, January 20, 2019, 6:40 p.m. ET
Location: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Patriots at Chiefs TV Coverage: CBS
Opening NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
New England Patriots +3
Kansas City Chiefs -3
Over/Under 58.5
We can talk about Tom Brady and the Patriots’ playoff success for days because it’s that lengthy and unheard of in this day of free agents, salary caps and parity. Their eight appearances in the conference championship in the last eight seasons are more than all but three other AFC teams, and their 10 total victories are easily the most.
And all that current success has been orchestrated by Brady, who led the Pats to a Super Bowl win over St. Louis in his first year as the team’s starter back in the 2001 season. And the wins just kept coming. The opening line for this game puts Brady in unfamiliar territory, though. With him starting the Pats had been favored in 67 consecutive games, including the postseason. The last time the Pats weren’t favored with Brady as the starter came back in Week 2 of the 2015 season when they played as a 2-point dog in Buffalo. New England won the game 40-32.
The Pats advanced to their 15th AFC Championship Game with a 41-28 rout of the Chargers last weekend, covering the 3.5-point spread. They also remained undefeated at home improving their record to 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS. But on the road things have been much different. The Pats struggled during the regular year going just 3-5 SU and ATS. And they haven't won a road playoff game since 2007 going 0-3 SU and ATS since then with all three losses against Peyton Manning-led teams.
Playoff history has been much less attractive in Kansas City. Entering last weekend’s game, the Chiefs were just 1-11 in their previous 12 postseason encounters. They put to rest some of the problems by handling the Colts in the snow and doing it without having their phenom Patrick Mahomes throw a touchdown pass.
Getting 31 points without the help of Mahomes tells us something about the Chiefs offense. But we knew the unit was good and it overcame the loss of Kareem Hunt late in the season. But what has fans in KC excited is the play of the team’s defense. Carrying over a solid performance in the final regular season game when they limited the Raiders to a field goal and secured home field advantage, the Chiefs clamped down on Andrew Luck.
KC ended the regular season ranked 31st in passing yards and total yards allowed, but they looked like a completely different group in holding Luck to just 203 passing yards and the Colts to 263 total yards. The Chiefs sacked Luck three times and harassed him the entire afternoon. The Chiefs were the highest scoring team during the regular season, but things change come playoff time and it’s not easy to outscore teams. KC is one of nine teams to score at least 540 points during a NFL season and the previous eight failed to win the Super Bowl.
The teams played in Foxboro in Week 6 with the Pats getting a late field goal for the 43-40 win. It was a battle of the QBs in that contest with Brady throwing for 340 yards and Mahomes countering with 352. The difference was a pair of picks by the Pats defense that thwarted drives. However, Mahomes was able to deliver a big second half and briefly got the Chiefs the lead before Brady worked his magic. KC covered the 3.5-point line and the team’s easily cashed the over.
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