A rematch of last season’s AFC Championship Game could also be a preview of what to expect next January. The Jacksonville Jaguars came oh so close to their first Super Bowl appearance, leading by 10 points in the fourth quarter before Tom Brady took over. The New England Patriots have been to the conference title game so many times – seven in a row and 13 overall to be exact – that they are expected to be there once again. Fans of the Jacksonville Jaguars are guardedly optimistic that their team can repeat. A big early season showdown takes place in Week 2.
This matchup in Week 2 of the regular season will take place on Sunday, September 16, 2018, at 4:25 p.m. ET at TIAA Bank Field.
NFL Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
New England Patriots -2
Jacksonville Jaguars +2
Over/Under 45
Odds Analysis
The consensus favors New England with 70 percent of the early money, however the sharps are backing the Jags, dropping the line a half point to its current total. The Pats are -2, but with a lot of action coming before kickoff, the line will bounce around. The total hasn’t moved since opening at 45 and the wagering has been spread evenly.
Injury Report
Jeremy Hill – The Pats were delivered a blow to their backfield when Hill went on injured reserve with an ACL injury sustained in last week’s game. Hill beat out Mike Gillislee during camp for the team’s top power back, but played just 12 snaps on Sunday with four carries for 25 yards and a 6-yard reception before going down. Hill had some good years with the Bengals before coming over in the offseason. With Sony Michel still on the shelf, the Pats signed Kenjon Barner to replenish depth at the position.
Leonard Fournette – Suffering a bigger loss to their backfield, the Jags could be without last season’s leading rusher after Fournette left the Giants game with a hamstring issue. He’s listed as day-to-day, but hammy injuries are tricky. Fournette cleared the 1,000-yard mark last season in 13 games and had 41 yards on nine carries in the opener before exiting. T.J. Yeldon took over and Corey Grant is the only other back currently on the 53-man roster.
Matchup to Watch
It’s unlikely to be a direct matchup in the Jags secondary, but the Patriots are well aware of the smack Jalen Ramsey spewed about Rob Gronkowski in a recent ESPN The Magazine interview. “I don’t think Gronk is as great as people think he is,” Ramsey said. The Pats don’t respond to trash talk through the media, they respond on the field. And Gronk will be a favorite target of Brady’s on Sunday.
With Julian Edelman serving the second of his four-game suspension and a group of receivers still getting acclimated to the system, Gronk is the top option anyway. Catching seven of his eight targets, Gronk led all Pats receivers with 123 yards in their win over Houston. And you can bet Brady and Gronk have something in store for Ramsey.
Last Meeting
Jacksonville did nearly everything right for three-plus quarters in the AFC Championship, building a 10-point lead with visions of their first Super Bowl starting to come into view. They even forced a turnover and had a chance to pad the lead, but they didn’t. And that was all Brady needed.
Faced with a third-and-18 at their own 25, Brady pulled off another miracle in a career filled with them. He completed a 21-yard pass to extend the drive and tossed a scoring pass four plays later. The tide shifted and the Jags vaunted defense fell apart. The offense managed one first down on the next two series, giving the ball to Brady with under five minutes to play. Two minutes later the Pats punched in the game-winner, denying the Jags the ultimate finish to their season.
Free ATS Pick
This figures to be the best game on the Week 2 slate and the Jags have plenty to prove. They want to let the Pats know that last season wasn’t a fluke, and they’d love to avenge that loss in the championship game. But that’s much easier said than done and their chances decline without Fournette. Leaving the game in the hands of Blake Bortles will prove to be a disaster.
Not that Brady, Gronk and the Pats need extra incentive, but they got it from Ramsay, who decided to play scouting director again with his own assessment of players. He targeted the wrong guy in Gronk, who is poised to have a bigger game than normal. And New England’s improved defense isn’t going allow much to the Jags. The visitors minus the points and the under are winning plays in this one.
NFL Betting Odds: Patriots 20, Jaguars 16
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