The luster for this first go-round between the AFC North rival Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers has lost much of its luster with the former sitting perched atop the AFC pecking order and the latter currently sitting on the outside looking into the playoff picture. John Harbaugh’s troops enter this tilt having won and covered the closing NFL odds at online sportsbooks each of the last two weeks in a pair of hard fought victories against the Chicago Bears and Cleveland Browns. That Week 10 tie against the Detroit Lions has seemingly knocked Mike Tomlin’s squad off the rails. It dropped an exciting back-and-forth affair with the Los Angeles Chargers on SNF, but followed it up with a no-show in Cincinnati last week. The injury bug has wreaked havoc upon both rosters this season, but it’s the Ravens that enter this tilt the healthier of the two sides. T.J. Watt being added to the IR/COVID-19 list will make dealing with Lamar Jackson and company that much more challenging for a humbled Steelers defense. Though Pittsburgh is a prideful franchise, it looks like there’s little air left in the balloon at this point. With that, I’m bullish on the Ravens extended their current win streak while at the same time avenging the pair of losses absorbed by their hated rivals last season.
Watch this regular season Week 13 matchup on Sunday, December 5, 2021, at 4:25 p.m. ET from Heinz Field on CBS.
NFL Odds at Bookmaker.eu
Baltimore Ravens -4.5
Pittsburgh Steelers +4.5
Total 44
Odds Analysis
The look-ahead lines had the visiting Ravens laying 3-points and the total set at 45. As bad the Steelers looked on both sides of the ball last week paired with the Ravens seemingly getting into a late-season groove, the betting markets have flocked to the Ravens. Current wager reports find 64 percent of the bets and an eye-opening 85 percent of the money backing Baltimore ultimately forcing linemakers to bump the number to beat up to -4.5. The Ravens check in 6-3 SU and 3-6 ATS when laying points this season. Of the four times it was favored on the road, it managed just one ATS triumph with the under cashing in three times. As such, the O/U is down a full point to 44 with 86 percent of the money in favor of the line move.
Player Prop Targets
Since going off for 120 scoreless rushing yards against the Minnesota Vikings back in Week 9, Lamar Jackson has been held in check. He managed just 39 yards on nine carries against the resurgent Miami Dolphins, and then followed it up with 68 yards on 17 carries against the Cleveland Browns a week removed from sitting the game against the Chicago out due to an illness. He’s well overdue for a blowup game, and I’m thinking this spot versus the beaten down and injury riddled Steelers defense is as ripe as any. Pittsburgh’s gotten shredded on the ground to the tune of 133.1 yards per game (No. 28) at 4.8 yards per carry (No. 31); an output that jumps to 5.7 over the last three weeks. While Pittsburgh has only given up 219 yards and 2 TD on 43 carries to scrambling QBs and Lamar’s never thrived running the ball against the Yellow and Black, I still can’t shake what Justin Herbert did to them two weeks ago. Now granted numerous key cogs of the defensive puzzle were roaming the sideline, but Watt and Joe Haden likely won’t be available this week either. Bet the over of his rushing prop and throw some beer money on an anytime touchdown being scored!
Free ATS Pick
If Big Ben is able to get ample time to throw the ball in the face of a Ravens defense that will be blitzing him ad nauseum, the Steelers will have a very high chance of sticking close in this one all the way through. It’s got the pass catchers in Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool and James Washington to take advantage of a Ravens secondary that’s been roasted for better than 275 passing yards per game; an output that finds them ranked dead last in the NFL. Unfortunately, I don’t foresee it happening consistently enough to keep this game competitive for the full 60. Look for Baltimore to control the pace of play with its unforgiving rushing attack while the defense forces a few turnovers that allows for the visitors to keep the home team in their rearview mirror. Should Pittsburgh surprise like it did in LA against the Chargers, live bet the Ravens on the moneyline if getting any sort of plus-money return. In the end, they’ll come out the victor of this matchup. Either way, look for a big showing from Lamar and the defense which results in a double-digit road win and cover.
NFL Pick: Ravens 30, Steelers 17
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