Dan Quinn knows what he has on his Atlanta Falcons roster, but he would certainly like to see more than what the group accomplished in its preseason opener. With Matt Ryan playing one series, and Julio Jones and Devonta Freeman not playing at all, the Falcons were shutout in a loss to the Jets. Quinn and Kansas City Chiefs coach Andy Reid are more concerned with getting reps in specific situations rather than the outcome of the game, but the way both teams lost is unsettling. They will try to get it right against each other in Week 2 of the preseason.
This duel in Week 1 of the preseason will go down Friday, August 17, 2018, at 7 p.m. ET inside Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Kansas City Chiefs +3
Atlanta Falcons -3
Over/Under 40.5
Odds Analysis
Typical of a preseason game the Falcons opened by the standard margin of home field advantage with a total of 40.5. Both coaches were not pleased with last week’s performance and we can expect a crisper game, especially on offense which could lead to the teams cashing the over.
Quarterback Rotation
Both starters will look to improve on subpar performances from last week. Patrick Mahomes played two series and threw seven passes before exiting. Mahomes completed five attempts for 33 yards, but the Chiefs punted both times after picking up a first down in each series. The play script was vanilla with Mahomes not getting a chance to unload the ball downfield. He’s looking forward to a few more opportunities on Friday.
Backup Chad Henne led the Chiefs on their only touchdown drive, hooking up with Demarcus Robinson on a 24-yard scoring pass. Henne ended the day with 91 yards on 8 of 14 passing, solidifying his spot as the primary backup.
Matt Ryan would have welcomed another series in last week’s game, but he was yanked after the Falcons went three-and-out with penalties impacting the drive. They actually lost yardage because of the infractions and Ryan’s only pass went for negative yards. There wasn’t much to speak of on offense until Matt Schaub connected with Eric Saubert a few times near the end of the first half.
Ryan will get more opportunities against the Chiefs and Schaub will take over after that. The veteran backup was a perfect 9 of 9 against the Jets for 54 yards. Garrett Grayson and Kurt Benkert showed everyone why they are in camp to fill space.
Coaching History
Both coaches take a similar approach to the preseason. It’s not about getting six yards on a third-and-five play, rather it’s about evaluating players in specific situations. Even with that mindset, they weren’t happy about their team’s performance in Week 1. The Falcons have lost five straight preseason games and are 0-7 ATS in their last seven. They’ve also played below the total in seven of their last eight.
Reid has an overall record of 36-41 over his career during the exhibition season and Week 2 is his worst. He owns a record of 7-11 in the second preseason game, though the Chiefs won and covered on the road in Week 2 last year.
Free ATS Pick
Neither team was sharp last week and I expect that to change on Friday. Both coaches are detail-oriented and the squads will pay more attention. That means we’ll see more of the regulars than we probably would have had things played out differently last week. The Falcons want to get more work in the red zone, but they can’t do that if they fail to penetrate the opponents 20. Quinn and Steve Sarkisian will abandon that strategy and instead look for ways to move the football.
Mahomes wants to show off his powerful arm and air it out, but he didn’t get the chance last week with protection issues and a vanilla game plan. Reid will be a little more creative this week and the Chiefs offense will benefit. We saw some high-scoring games last week, but these clubs with an abundance of play makers weren’t among them. With regulars seeing more action, expect that to change and the over is a strong play.
NFL Odds: Falcons 27, Chiefs 23
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