Did you know that you can bet NFL quarterback props at BookMaker for the 2019 regular season? Numbers are on the board for quarterbacks for the upcoming season, including odds on Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson. You can bet over or under the amount of yards thrown for by Wilson and you can also bet over or under the amount of touchdowns thrown by Wilson. Let’s look at the numbers and analyze these two props.
Russell Wilson Total Passing Yards
3,650.5 Yards (Under -125)
Russell Wilson Total TD Passes
29.5 (Under -129)
Before we break down both of these props, it is important to know exactly how many yards Wilson has thrown for in the past few years and how many TD passes he has had. Here are his career numbers.
Year Yards TDs
2018 3,448 35
2017 3,983 34
2016 4,219 21
2015 4,024 34
2014 3,475 20
2013 3,357 26
2012 3,118 26
In three of the last four years, Wilson has thrown for nearly 4,000 yards and at least 34 TDs. If you simply look at recent history then you would take the over on both of these props, but there is more to consider, including the schedule. If you simply look at the numbers based on last season, Wilson should throw for about 3,600 yards and have 29 TDs. That is pretty close to what the numbers have been set at for Wilson for 2019.
The concern with taking the over on Wilson props is that the Seahawks are not a passing team. Wilson threw 427 times last season, 20th in the NFL. The Seahawks also lost Doug Baldwin who retired due to injury and they didn’t do a lot to replace him. Seattle is counting on rookie D.K. Metcalf to make a big impact, but Metcalf is not a possession receiver.
It is also worth noting that Seattle’s offensive coordinator is Brian Schottenheimer and if there is one thing we know about Schottenheimer is that he loves to run the ball. Wilson simply is not going to throw the ball all over the field on a regular basis. And if you don’t think the offensive coordinator matters, then consider this little nugget. Wilson threw a career-high 553 times two years ago, but last year in the first season under Schottenheimer, Wilson threw the ball 126 fewer times. How about this number? Ben Roethlisberger of the Steelers threw the ball 675 times last season to lead the league. He averaged 15.5 more attempts per game than Wilson.
The Seahawks don’t figure to change their offense heading into the 2019 season, so it is risky to think Wilson improves upon his numbers from last season, especially without Baldwin. Before I get to a recommendation for Wilson’s props, I want to consider the Seattle schedule for 2019.
2019 Seattle Seahawks Schedule
Sep 8 Cincinnati
Sep 15 at Pittsburgh
Sep 22 New Orleans
Sep 29 at Arizona
Oct 3 L.A. Rams
Oct 13 at Cleveland
Oct 20 Baltimore
Oct 27 at Atlanta
Nov 3 Tampa Bay
Nov 11 at San Francisco
BYE
Nov 24 at Philadelphia
Dec 2 Minnesota
Dec 8 at L.A. Rams
Dec 15 at Carolina
Dec 22 Arizona
Dec 29 San Francisco
The Seahawks have a difficult schedule in 2019, but strength of schedule is always difficult to analyze before a season begins. What we do know is that Seattle will face some difficult defenses, including the Ravens, Eagles and Vikings.
Recommendation
Oddsmakers actually made the yardage for Wilson higher this season than what Wilson threw for last year. That makes no sense to me considering the Seahawks still have Schottenheimer calling the plays. I would take the yardage total for Wilson to go under 3,650.5 yards. The touchdown number is lower than what he threw for last season, but it makes sense if you consider the Seattle philosophy of running the ball. I don’t see as much value on the TD prop, so I will pass on that one.
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