Passing yards and touchdown props are on the board at BookMaker for NFL quarterbacks for the 2019 regular season. One of those props is for New York Jets quarterback Sam Darnold. The numbers on Darnold are interesting and could offer some value because oddsmakers really don’t know what number to make for Darnold heading into this year. Darnold played just 13 games last season and even those games don’t tell us much because the Jets will have a new head coach this season in Adam Gase and more weapons on offense. Let’s look at the odds for Darnold props and make a recommendation.
Sam Darnold Total Passing Yards
3,650.5 Yards (Under -119)
Sam Darnold Total TD Passes
24.5 (Under -150)
Before we break down both of these props, it is important to know exactly how many yards Darnold threw for last year and how many TD passes he has had. He threw for 2,865 yards and 17 touchdowns last season, but keep in mind that was in just 13 games.
Darnold will be in his second NFL season and there are reasons to think he is going to have a good 2019 season. He gets a major upgrade in his head coach with Adam Gase taking over. Whether or not Gase is a good head coach is in debate, but we do know that he is a good offensive coach and that is all that matters when considering the props on Darnold. The Jets will have a much better offense this season under Gase and it definitely helps that New York added Le’Veon Bell and Jamison Crowder. New York already had Robby Anderson, Chris Herndon and Quincy Enunwa.
Darnold had his moments in his rookie season but there were also some growing pains. He didn’t get a lot of help, as New York didn’t have a lot of playmakers. 2019 will be a huge test for Darnold because there won’t be any excuses this time around. He completed just 57.7% of his passes last season and that is simply not good enough for an NFL quarterback. He also had far too many interceptions and that has to change. There is no doubt that having Bell in the backfield will help, as Bell is an excellent receiver and Darnold’s completion percentage will improve. The addition of Crowder also helps, as Crowder is a good possession receiver and he will give Darnold some easy completions.
2019 New York Jets Schedule
Sep 8 Buffalo
Sep 16 Cleveland
Sep 22 at New England
BYE
Oct 6 at Philadelphia
Oct 13 Dallas
Oct 21 New England
Oct 27 at Jacksonville
Nov 3 at Miami
Nov 10 NY Giants
Nov 17 at Washington
Nov 24 Oakland
Dec 1 at Cincinnati
Dec 8 Miami
Dec 12 at Baltimore
Dec 22 Pittsburgh
Dec 29 at Buffalo
The Jets really have a favorable schedule, but this is the NFL and no games are easy. New York should benefit from playing teams like Oakland, Cincinnati, and Washington. The AFC East isn’t a division that is known for a lot of great teams, as there is New England and then everyone else. New York should be able to compete with Buffalo and there is no doubt they should be able to beat Miami. Darnold has a schedule that should give him chances to put up good numbers this season.
Recommendation
I think the over is the only way to go on the Darnold props. The yardage total seems reasonable, especially considering the Jets upgraded their offense in the off-season and because Gase is an offensive-minded head coach. I am surprised the juice on the touchdown passes is favoring the under, as Darnold is very capable of going over 24.5 TD passes. That seems like a low total to me and we are getting plus money on the over.
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