If the San Francisco 49ers had a quarterback they might have reached the Super Bowl last season. Their loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC Championship was so bad the league made a rule change this offseason to address that situation. Unfortunately it doesn’t help the Niners now. And because of the QB situation there are some concerns about the Niners, who boast the highest win total on the NFL futures board at 11.5.
Despite using three different starting QBs the Niners won 13 games and for the second year in a row came up a win short of reaching the Super Bowl. All three QBs had their season end due to injury and two of them are hopeful to be back fighting for the starting job. The rest of the roster is littered with talent that should at least help the club win games. A healthy and productive QB, however, is what will take the Niners over their projected win total.
NFL Regular Season Wins Odds
San Francisco 49ers 2023 Regular Season Win Total Odds
49ers Over 11.5 Wins +133
49ers Under 11.5 Wins -149
The biggest question entering the season has to do with the QBs. Trey Lance earned the starting gig ahead of Jimmy Garoppolo last year but we never really saw what he could do. Playing in a quagmire at Soldier Field in Week 1 didn’t help then Lance was injured the following week. The team wisely kept Jimmy G around and it paid off. However, when Garoppolo went down later in the year few knew what to expect. Drafted in the seventh round with the 262nd pick, Brock Purdy became a folk hero leading the Niners to five straight wins to close the regular season and a pair of playoff triumphs. However, in the NFC title game Purdy sustained an elbow injury that eventually needed surgery leaving journeyman Josh Johnson as the only option. When Johnson got concussed the Niners were out of options and the Eagles pounced 31-7.
Purdy and Lance are expected to be ready early in the season and the club acquired veterans Sam Darnold and Brandon Allen for depth. Teams can now have an emergency third-string QB available on game days in addition to their full roster. Having Christian McCaffrey for a full season will help take the load off the QB. But as we saw during his days in Carolina injuries are always a concern. With George Kittle, Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk don’t expect the Niners to completely abandon the passing game.
Success comes at a price and once again the coaching staff was raided. Demeco Ryans, who coordinated the NFL’s top ranked scoring and yardage unit in 2022 left for Houston. The talent is there to again be good, but schematically we could see changes affecting the overall production.
2023 San Francisco 49ers Schedule
Week 1: at Pittsburgh Steelers, Sunday, September 10, 1 p.m. ET
Week 2: at Los Angeles Rams, Sunday, September 17, 4:05 p.m. ET
Week 3: vs. New York Giants, Thursday, September 21, 8:15 p.m. ET
Week 4: vs. Arizona Cardinals, Sunday, October 1, 4:25 p.m. ET
Week 5: vs. Dallas Cowboys, Sunday, October 8, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
Week 6: at Cleveland Browns, Sunday, October 15, 1 p.m. ET
Week 7: at Minnesota Vikings, Monday, October 23, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Week 8: vs. Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday, October 29, 4:25 p.m. ET
Week 9: BYE WEEK
Week 10: at Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday, November 12, 1 p.m. ET
Week 11: vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Sunday, November 19, 4:05 p.m. ET
Week 12: at Seattle Seahawks, Thursday, November 23, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
Week 13: at Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday, December 3, 4:25 p.m. ET
Week 14: vs. Seattle Seahawks, Sunday, December 10, 4:05 p.m. ET
Week 15: at Arizona Cardinals, Sunday, December 17, 4:05 p.m. ET
Week 16: vs. Baltimore Ravens, Monday, December 25, 8:15 p.m. ET (ABC)
Week 17: at Washington Commanders, Sunday, December 31, 1 p.m. ET
Week 18: vs. Los Angeles Rams, Sunday, January 7 (TBA)
The Niners certainly are in a good spot to surpass the win total with the NFC West being kind of a mess. The Rams and Cardinals are trying to figure things out and Seattle was no match for SF last year. Still, the QB situation bothers me with both Lance and Purdy recovering from serious injuries and still unproven after that. Talent alone will likely get them a division title, but winning 12 games will be a stretch so I’m backing the UNDER.
NFL Odds: San Francisco 49ers UNDER 11.5
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