The top two teams in the NFC will battle it out in the conference championship game to see which club punches a ticket to Arizona in early February. Arguably the hottest team in the NFL, the San Francisco 49ers take a 12-game overall winning streak into their showdown with the top-seeded Philadelphia Eagles. Overcoming the loss of two quarterbacks during the regular season, the Niners are headed back to the NFC title game for a second straight season with hope that Brock Purdy can get them to the Super Bowl. Purdy has yet to lose as a starter going 7-0 with six payouts in that run. If the opening line holds it’ll be the first time the Niners are catching points since Week 8 of the regular season.
The NFC Championship game will take place on Sunday, January 29, 2023 at 3 p.m. ET at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, PA and will be televised on FOX.
NFC Championship Betting Odds
San Francisco 49ers +2.5
Philadelphia Eagles -2.5
Total: 45
Money Line: 49ers +131 / Eagles -151
Odds Analysis
The Niners have rolled over everyone since the midway point winning their last 10 regular season games and going 8-2 ATS. That success carried into the postseason with home payout wins over Seattle and Dallas. And despite playing with a third-string QB over the last six games they were laying points each time. In fact, the Niners haven’t played as an underdog since catching 1-point in their Week 8 thumping of the Rams. The only other time they got points was in a blowout 44-23 home loss to Kansas City in Week 7. So this is new territory for them pegged as a 2.5-point dog.
Winning their first eight games and 13 of 14 gave the Eagles enough of a cushion to earn the NFC’s No. 1 seed and home field advantage. However, two of their three losses took place at the Linc to Washington and New Orleans when they were big favorites in both. A 25-20 win over Chicago in Week 15 when the Eagles failed to cover the 8.5-point line started a 0-4 ATS slide to close the season. Jalen Hurts missed two of those games and was hindered by injury in the others. With a first round bye to recuperate, Hurts and the Eagles rolled the Giants 38-7 last week improving to 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS at home.
Key Injury
At this time of the season no team is completely healthy. That’s why the bye week in the first round is so precious and the Eagles used it to get Hurts back into form. Hurts injured his throwing shoulder in Week 15 and missed the following two contests – both Philadelphia losses with Gardner Minshew starting. In a game they needed to win to secure the No. 1 seed, Hurts was back for the finale against the Giants but nowhere near the explosive player pre-injury. Running a vanilla game plan Hurts threw for 229 yards and stayed away from designed running plays.
It was a different story two weeks later, though Hurts was “nowhere near 100 percent.” He threw for two scores and ran for another as the Eagles compiled 268 yards on the ground and averaged over 6.0 yards per carry in the 38-7 win over the Giants. The Niners had the second-best run defense during the season allowing only 77.7 yards per game.
Key Stat
With two of the stingiest defenses in the NFL points will be hard to come by. The Niners led the league during the season allowing slightly over 300 yards per game and 16.3 points. The group held Dallas to 282 total yards last week and the Boys were just 5 of 15 on third downs. One of the best at extracting the football during the season the Niners led the NFL with a plus-13 turnover differential and they picked off two Dak Prescott passes last week. They were plus-16 during their 10-game season-ending winning streak and have multiple takeaways in both playoff games for a plus-3 margin.
Free ATS Pick
The Niners have struggled on the road going 5-3 SU and 4-4 ATS during the season and I’m not ready to anoint Brock Purdy as the team’s starter for next season yet. He was the right guy at the right time and maybe he has a Kurt Warner-esque career, but I’m holding out for now. Though they are favored it’s like the Eagles aren’t getting their due, and that’s a motivating factor for them to end the Niners’ run.
NFL Pick: Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 / UNDER 45
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