Super Wild Card weekend begins with three games on Saturday, the Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills, Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks and Tampa Bay Buccaneers at the Washington Football Team. The Bills and Seahawks are listed as home favorites, while Washington is a home underdog. Let’s look at all three Wild Card games, odds, key matchups, key factors and Saturday Wild Card picks.
Watch Saturday NFL Wild Card Games on Saturday, January 9 with games starting at 1:05, 4:40 and 8:15 p.m. Eastern Time.
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Indianapolis at Buffalo (1:05 p.m., CBS)
Buffalo Bills -6.5, total 52
This first game on Saturday looks to be a mismatch, as the Bills are coming in red-hot, having won 13 games for the first time since 1991. They will be hosting their first playoff game in 24 years and they will be taking on an Indianapolis team that is counting on Philip Rivers to lead them to a playoff win.
Key Matchup
If the Colts can’t slow down Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs then this game is going to turn into a rout. Allen threw 37 TD passes this season, while Diggs led the league in catches with 127. Indianapolis has a decent pass defense that ranked 7th in defense-adjusted value against the pass.
Key Factor
Do you really trust Philip Rivers to win a playoff game? If you take the Colts then you have to think they have a chance to win, because taking a small number of points with a team you don’t think can win is a bad bet. Rivers is 39-years old and his playoff record is 5-6 and two of those wins came in 2010. I don’t see any way that Rivers can make enough plays against a good Buffalo secondary for the Colts to win.
Wild Card Pick
I can’t see Rivers winning a big game and the Bills are red-hot, at home and full of confidence. This should be a solid Buffalo win in what could be a high scoring contest.
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (4:40 p.m., FOX)
Seattle Seahawks -5, total 43
Two teams that know each other really well meet on Saturday afternoon in Seattle, as the Rams visit the Seahawks. These teams met just two weeks ago and the Seahawks pulled out an ugly defensive win. These two teams almost always play close games, with five of the last eight being decided by a touchdown or less. Neither offense has done much lately, so this could end up turning into another defensive battle
Key Matchup
This game comes down to whether or not the Rams can find a way to score against an improved Seattle defense. We don’t know if Jared Goff will play but he was awful two weeks ago against the Seahawks and as strange as this sounds, the Rams might be better off with John Wolford under center.
Key Factor
This game is probably going to be determined by which team avoids turnovers. The Rams lose games when Goff turns the ball over and the same thing can be said about the Seahawks and Russell Wilson. Whichever defense can force turnovers should win this game.
Wild Card Pick
This is a tough one, but I am surprised the number is so high. Seattle was just a one-point favorite two weeks ago. What has changed? I sure don’t think Goff is worth four points the way he is playing. I’ll take the Rams plus the points and if Goff somehow goes and the line moves back, I’ll just get off the game and look for a middle and take Seattle at -3 or less.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Football Team (8:15 p.m., NBC)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -8, total 46.5
The Bucs are not a division winner, but many people think they have a chance to challenge Green Bay, New Orleans and Seattle for the NFC title. The Bucs may actually have the easiest matchup in the Wild Card round as they face a Washington team that made the playoffs with a 7-9 record. The Bucs have the far better offense, while Washington may have the better defense.
Key Matchup
This game comes down to whether or not the Washington defensive line can get pressure on Tom Brady. If the Bucs can’t pressure Brady then this game will turn into a rout. Washington has Chase Young, Montez Sweat, Daron Payne and Jonathan Allen up front and we know that Brady is going to stand in the pocket. The Bucs led the NFC in big plays with 69 plays of 20 yards or more, but Washington allowed the second-fewest big plays in the league.
Key Factor
Washington will have to find a way to score points and based on what we saw last week with Alex Smith and the offense it seems unlikely they are going to score very many. Forget about Washington running the ball, as Tampa has the best run defense in the league. Smith can’t move much so it will be hard to get big plays against the Bucs.
Wild Card Pick
I can’t see how Washington scores enough points to make this game competitive, so I will lay the points and take Tampa Bay.
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