NFL Divisional Playoff weekend wraps up on Sunday, January 17th with two games, as the Cleveland Browns visit the Kansas City Chiefs, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers visit the New Orleans Saints. The Chiefs are double-digit favorites to handle the Browns in the first matchup on CBS, while the Saints are 3-point favorites against the Saints on FOX in what will be the third meeting this season between the teams. Let’s look at both Divisional games, odds, key matchups, key factors and Saturday Divisional Playoff picks.
Watch Sunday NFL Divisional Playoff games on Sunday, January 17th with games starting at 3:05 and 6:40 p.m. Eastern Time. Bet on NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu every day of the season.
Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs (3:05 p.m., CBS)
Chiefs -10, total 56
The Chiefs are the top seed in the AFC and the current Super Bowl favorite. Kansas City had last week off, while the Browns outscored the Steelers in the Wild Card round. Kansas City features a potent offense led by Patrick Mahomes, while the Browns have an explosive running attack led by Nick Chubb and former Chief Kareem Hunt. The Chiefs are getting the bulk of the betting action from the public, so the question will be whether or not the wise guys will think 10 points is enough to back the Browns.
Key Matchup
This game comes down to whether or not the Cleveland secondary can hold up against Mahomes and his many weapons. Last week it was obvious that the Browns couldn’t stop Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh passing attack. The Browns just benefited from some bad throws from Roethlisberger and got five turnovers. That is not going to happen this week, as Mahomes is considered the best quarterback in the NFL. The Chiefs have too many weapons for Cleveland to contain. Kansas City has the best tight end in the league in Travis Kelce and one of the most explosive receivers in the league in Tyreek Hill. Kansas City also has some very good secondary options including Mecole Hardman, Demarcus Robinson and Sammy Watkins. We don’t know if running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire will play, but his return would give Kansas City another big weapon in the passing game.
Key Factor
If the Browns are going to stay in this game then Baker Mayfield has to play a great game. He has thrown 11 TDs and just one interception in his last nine games and he will have the opportunity to make plays on Sunday. This game is kind of like the college football national title game where Ohio State had to keep up with Alabama to have any chance to win and they couldn’t do it. The Browns will have to score on a regular basis to have any chance in this game because the Chiefs are going to score a lot of points.
Divisional Playoff Pick
The value is on the Browns, but I don’t know that I trust Mayfield to win a high scoring game against Mahomes. I lean toward Kansas City, but I think the better play is to take the game over the total.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (6:40 p.m., FOX)
Saints -3, total 51.5
The final game of the weekend in the Divisional round of the NFL Playoffs is a matchup between two of the greatest quarterbacks in NFL history. Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers visit Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints. Brady and Brees have faced each other eight times in their careers, but this will be their first playoff matchup. Brees has the 5-3 edge in their career meetings, with his teams outscoring Brady’s by 7.9 points per game. This season the Saints have outscored the Bucs 72-26 in two meetings. The Buccaneers are coming off a win last week against Washington in the Wild Card round, while the Saints routed the Bears.
Key Matchup
The New Orleans defense handled Brady and the Tampa Bay offense in both regular season meetings this season. The Saints put pressure on Brady and sacked him a total of six times in the two games and Brady threw five interceptions. New Orleans had the fourth-best defense in fewest yards allowed this season and they were tied for fifth in fewest points allowed. The Bucs proved last week that they can score against tough defenses, as they had 501 yards and they scored 31 points against a Washington defense that ranked higher than the Saints. Since their bye in Week 13, the Bucs have averaged 35.8 points and 459.8 yards per game. Since the bye, Brady has completed 65.9% of his passes for 1,714 yards, 14 touchdowns, one interception and a passer rating of 121.7.
For the Bucs to win on Sunday they have to protect Brady. Last week against the stout front of Washington, the Bucs gave up three sacks, but overall they did a good job. It should be noted that New Orleans got much of their pressure this season from Trey Hendrickson who led the team with 13.5 sacks. He missed last week’s win against Chicago with a neck injury. Keep an eye on his status for Sunday’s game. On the other side, the Bucs will be without right guard Alex Cappa who fractured his ankle last week against Washington. He will be replaced by Aaron Stinnie who will be making his first start.
Key Factor
You can say this in almost every game, but turnovers usually determine which team wins and loses in the postseason. The Bucs lost twice to the Saints in the regular season and it was because they turned the ball over. "It's mostly been the turnovers," Tampa head coach Bruce Arians said to the media, "The turnover margin has been lopsided in their favor. We've got to protect the football much better.”
Divisional Playoff Pick
When two teams are evenly matched it is very difficult for one team to beat the other one three times in the same season. The Bucs and Saints played two non-competitive games in the regular season, but that shouldn’t be the case on Sunday. I think the value is on the Bucs, so I will take Tampa Bay plus the points.
BookMaker offers play-by-play betting odds for live sporting events every day! The user-friendly wagering interface on your smartphone provides an easy way to place bets on the go. Mobile betting lines are updated by the minute, so click here to start gambling on thrilling live action at BookMaker Sportsbook!
