Super Wild Card weekend wraps up with three games on Sunday, the Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans, Chicago Bears at New Orleans Saints and Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers. The Titans are a home underdog, while the Saints and Steelers are home favorites. Let’s look at all three Wild Card games, odds, key matchups, key factors and Sunday Wild Card picks.
Watch Sunday NFL Wild Card Games on Sunday, January 10 with games starting at 1:05, 4:40 and 8:15 p.m. Eastern Time.
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Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans (1:05 p.m., ABC & ESPN)
Baltimore Ravens -3.5, total 55
This first game on Sunday is a rematch of last year’s divisional playoffs when the Titans upset the Ravens. Baltimore will be playing with revenge and they come into this game red-hot, having won five in a row, averaging 37.2 points per game. This game is almost guaranteed to be high scoring and the total of 55 may not be nearly high enough.
Key Matchup
Can the Tennessee Titans control Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore offense? Last year the Titans did a great job of containing Jackson but it is not going to happen on Sunday. This year’s Tennessee defense is a disgrace and they have no chance to stop Baltimore’s offense unless the Ravens turn it over.
I also have to mention Derrick Henry going against the Baltimore defense. The Titans rely heavily on Henry, as he led the league in rushing with over 2,000 yards this season. Baltimore’s rush defense has improved in recent weeks and they might be able to slow down Henry a bit on Sunday.
Key Factor
The Ravens will need to get pressure on Tennessee quarterback Ryan Tannehill in this contest. Baltimore has gotten good play from Yannick Ngakoue in recent weeks and he has eight sacks, four forced fumbles and 10 quarterbacks hits this year. The Titans don’t have either of their two starting tackles from last year’s matchup, as Jack Conklin is now in Cleveland, while Taylor Lewan is on IR.
Wild Card Pick
I lean toward Baltimore in this game, but I think the better play is the total. I can’t see anything other than an extremely high scoring game that goes well over the total of 55.
Chicago Bears at New Orleans Saints (4:40 p.m., CBS)
New Orleans Saints -10, total 48
The New Orleans Saints couldn’t get the top seed in the NFC so they are stuck playing in the Wild Card round on Sunday as they host the Chicago Bears. The Bears are fortunate just to be in the playoffs and they are the biggest underdog on Wild Card weekend. New Orleans is hoping to have running back Alvin Kamara back on Sunday and they also should be getting Michael Thomas back from IR. These teams met earlier this season with the Saints winning in overtime.
Key Matchup
The Bears will have to be able to run the ball effectively to have any chance in this game. David Montgomery has had a good season, but New Orleans has the fourth-ranked run defense in the league. Chicago may have a little hope because the Saints struggled in the month of December against the run.
Key Factor
Injuries and COVID are the key factors in this game. It looks like Kamara will return from the COVID list and Thomas will be available for this game but we won’t really know until Sunday. The Bears are hurting in the secondary with Jaylon Johnson and Buster Skrine questionable. Johnson has a shoulder injury while Skrine has a concussion. New Orleans safety Marcus Williams also has an ankle injury and he is questionable.
Wild Card Pick
This is a tough game to call, as I lean toward the Bears in this game because of the high pointspread, but do I really trust Mitchell Trubisky to win the game throwing the ball? I slightly lean toward Chicago, but it all comes down to the injured players for both teams, so monitor who is in and out of the lineup before making your bet on Sunday.
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (8:15 p.m., NBC)
Pittsburgh Steelers -5, total 47
These teams met last week with the Steelers resting some of their starters including quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and Pittsburgh still almost won. This time around the Browns are dealing with a COVID outbreak and there is a chance this game might be postponed. The Browns will not have head coach Kevin Stefanski and who knows how many others for this game on Sunday. The Steelers are just a 5-point favorite, but that number should go higher.
Key Matchup
The Steelers have struggled to run the ball for much of the season so this game comes down to how much success Roethlisberger can have against the Cleveland secondary. Roethlisberger is no longer a top quarterback and his receivers lead the league in dropped passes. If Cleveland can keep Roethlisberger from making big plays this should be a low scoring game and that is Cleveland’s best chance to win.
Key Factor
The Browns are facing an uphill battle on Sunday. They will be without their head coach and a number of other coaches and players. It would have been hard enough to win in Pittsburgh with everyone healthy, but now there are a number of players and coaches who will miss this game. And if you are thinking that Baker Mayfield can win this game you might want to remember that quarterbacks making their first playoff start on Wild Card weekend are 9-30 since 2002.
Wild Card Pick
I don’t think Pittsburgh is that good, but I can’t take the Browns with all of their problems coming into this game. I will take the Steelers and also play the game under the total.
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