Another week of the 2022-23 NFL betting season is in the books which means it’s time to dig into how the futures odds market reacted to what went down in Week 11. If you’ve been following along with my breakdowns of the Super Bowl LVII odds heading into Week 12, you’re already invested in the Buffalo Bills +650, Baltimore Ravens +2200, New York Giants +18500, Philadelphia Eagles +686, Minnesota Vikings +2258, Pittsburgh Steelers +25000, San Francisco 49ers +1200, Seattle Seahawks +5300, and Washington Commanders +17500. We continue to get the best of the number with just about every one of those teams.
Week 12 calls for another breakdown of some of the biggest risers and fallers, so let’s get into to it!
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Super Bowl LVII Odds
TEAM |
WEEK 1 |
CURRENT |
BILLS |
+582 |
+400 |
BUCCANEERS |
+818 |
+1804 |
PACKERS |
+919 |
+15000 |
CHIEFS |
+940 |
+450 |
CHARGERS |
+1075 |
+4200 |
RAMS |
+1157 |
+26500 |
49ERS |
+1450 |
+650 |
RAVENS |
+1900 |
+1452 |
EAGLES |
+1965 |
+555 |
BRONCOS |
+2000 |
+45000 |
BENGALS |
+2100 |
+2858 |
COLTS |
+2462 |
+27500 |
COWBOYS |
+2500 |
+865 |
SAINTS |
+3000 |
+15500 |
RAIDERS |
+3300 |
+30000 |
VIKINGS |
+3450 |
+1502 |
DOLPHINS |
+3600 |
+1452 |
CARDINALS |
+4000 |
+30000 |
TITANS |
+4350 |
+2706 |
BROWNS |
+4500 |
+24500 |
PATRIOTS |
+4500 |
+6000 |
STEELERS |
+6300 |
+80000 |
LIONS |
+11500 |
+30000 |
PANTHERS |
+12500 |
+100000 |
COMMANDERS |
+14500 |
+11500 |
JAGUARS |
+15500 |
+25500 |
JETS |
+17500 |
+13000 |
GIANTS |
+18500 |
+10000 |
BEARS |
+21500 |
+125000 |
SEAHAWKS |
+21500 |
+4650 |
TEXANS |
+27500 |
+300000 |
FALCONS |
+30000 |
+20000 |
Dallas Cowboys +865
I mentioned there being a buying opportunity with Mike McCarthy’s squad heading into last week’s road trek to Minnesota. After squashing the Vikings 40-3, The Cowboys odds dropped from 14-1 to 8-1. Their odds of winning it all likely aren’t done dropping with four of the next five games coming at home and the Philadelphia Eagles representing one of those opponents.
Minnesota Vikings +1502
The Vikings had been getting it done with smoke and mirrors against less than stellar opposition. The betting market hadn’t fully bought into Kirk Cousins and Co. then, and now they’re in sell mode after dropping that heinous decision to the Cowboys on their home turf last week. The 37 point destruction saw their odds jump from +1053 to +1502, and now they get the Patriots on Turkey Day.
Tennessee Titans +2706
The wizard otherwise known as Mike Vrabel continues to stockpile wins with a roster not quite up to snuff. Seriously, is there a coach that gets more from less in the history of the NFL than Tennessee’s shot caller? Now a shoe-in to win the AFC South and snag a high seed in the postseason, the Titz 27-1 odds of winning it all are the shortest they’ve been to date.
New York Giants +10000
Man has it gotten ugly in the Big Apple quick! Losers in two of its last three and lined heavy underdogs to Dallas on Thanksgiving, it’s certainly within the realm of possibility that Brian Daboll’s squad misses out on the playoffs entirely with games still remaining @Dallas, Washington, Philadelphia, @Washington, @Minnesota, Indianapolis, and @Philadelphia to close the year.
Washington Commanders +11500
On the flipside, things are just hunky-dory in the nation’s capital with Ron Rivera’s men coming out victorious in five of their last six making Taylor Heinicke the toast of the town. Chase Young has just been activated to the 53-man roster to help aid a defense that’s dramatically turned it around over the course of the recent uptick. They’re only three games out of the division lead; Jus’ Sayn’…
New York Jets +13000
It’s safe to say those holding +3.5 tickets still aren’t over the end game loss to the Patriots last week, and now the Jets have a QB issue on their hands with Zach Wilson continuing to stink the joint up and not taking any ownership of it. Their 130-1 rate of return is approaching pre-season range because of it!
Green Bay Packers +15000
Can we finally put a fork in the Packers already? Many an NFL bettor already did. If not, last week’s non-competitive 27-17 loss to the Titans as field goal home favorites should’ve sealed the deal. Not even Christian Watson’s fluke rise from the ashes will be enough to turn it around in the Land of Cheese who saw their odds jump from 75-1 to 150-1.
Atlanta Falcons +20000
Hat tip to the Atlanta Falcons for figuring out how to get the best of what had been a red hot Justin Fields. They did so by being physical and putting a helmet on him whenever given the chance. The end result was a 27-24 triumph that saw the Falcons pull within a game of .500 to match the division leading Buccaneers with five wins. If you can believe it, Marcus Mariota is in a position to lead this team to the playoffs.
Cleveland Browns +24500
Know who won’t be leading a team to the postseason this year? Deshaun Watson. Not after the Browns dropped a second straight and sixth in their last seven tries after falling 31-23 in last week’s neutral field bout with the Bills. Their 245-1 odds to hoist the Lombardi Trophy are the longest they’ve been all year. Watson is a great quarterback, but he’s no miracle worker!
Los Angeles Rams +26500
It’s possible the Rams go down in the history books as the worst defending Super Bowl champion ever. Though faced with one of the toughest schedule strengths in the league per the folks over at Sharp Football Analysis, Sean McVay’s squad still returned its core of productive players. It’s amounted to three wins and a -59 point differential which finds them bringing up the rear of the NFC West standings. With Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp likely done for the season, their 265-1 rate of return will only get fatter!
Detroit Lions +30000
A month ago, the Lions odds of winning it all clocked in at 100-1. Fast forward three weeks, and they’re all the way down to 30-1 after scoring three straight wins against the Packers, Bears, and Giants. Positive regression has no doubt taken place after dropping so many one possession games early on, but it could be in for a wake-up call on Turkey Day against Josh Allen and Co.
Arizona Cardinals +30000
Initially lined 40-1 choices to hoist the Lombardi Trophy, the Redbirds rate of return is up to 300-1 after getting curb stomped in Mexico City by the division rival 49ers. Kliff Kingsbury is a dead man walking when it comes to being the head coach of this franchise in the near future. Upper management has taken a page out of the Colts book by firing coordinators first. We all know what happened soon after that once it failed to rectify the situation.
Denver Broncos +45000
The Broncos have scored a grand total of 17 offensive touchdowns through the first 11 weeks of the NFL betting season. The Lions Jamaal Williams has 12 rushing touchdowns to his credit. Let that sink in for a moment; I though Nathaniel Hackett was supposed to be some kind of offensive guru? I know what he will be soon – unemployed! Has there been a bigger disappointment in the NFL than the 2022-23 Denver Broncos whose odds to win SB LVII initially hit the board 20-1?!
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