Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers face Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LV on Sunday on CBS. It is perhaps the most anticipated Super Bowl in history and it could be the most bet on Super Bowl in terms of dollars wagered. The Chiefs are the defending Super Bowl champions and feature a high-powered offense, while the Bucs have Brady and their own stable of offensive weapons. Let’s look at Super Bowl LV odds, key matchups, key trends and Super Bowl LV picks.
Watch Super Bowl LV on Sunday, February 7 on CBS at 6:30 p.m. Eastern Time. Bet on NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu every day of the season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Kansas City Chiefs (6:30 p.m., CBS)
Chiefs -3, total 56
The Chiefs are listed as a 3-point favorite with the total at 56. It doesn’t appear the number will move off of three, as sportsbooks hate moving off a key number unless they get one-sides with action. We could see some movement on the total, as the public almost always bets big games over the total. It is a little surprising that the opening total was actually bet down from 57.5 to the current 56.
Key Matchups
Mahomes was excellent against the blitz this season and most teams decided that blitzing him was a bad idea. Tampa Bay brings extra rushers 38% of the time, so if Mahomes exploits the Tampa Bay blitz then the Bucs could be in trouble. Tampa Bay will need to get pressure on Mahomes without blitzing him and that means defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul needs to have a big game. Pierre-Paul and Shaquil Barrett will need to pressure Mahomes for Tampa to stay in this game.
On the other side, Brady was awful against the blitz this season, ranking 30th in the league when under pressure. Brady doesn’t move well and he hasn’t done well with quick throws. Tampa must keep Brady clean if they are to win this game. The Chiefs will be relying on safety Tyrann Mathieu to blitz Brady and force him into mistakes.
Key Factor
If Tampa Bay is to win this game then they need to force turnovers. Did you know that almost half of Tampa’s points in the playoffs have come off turnovers? During the regular season the Bucs got 101 points off turnovers, third-most in the league. The Chiefs turned the ball over only 16 times in the regular season, fourth-fewest in the league. They have turned it over just once in the playoffs. If the Chiefs avoid turning the ball over you have to like their chances in this game.
Key Trends
The Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in this series. The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as a favorite. The Chiefs are 11-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. The Chiefs are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games on grass. The Buccaneers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog.
Super Bowl LV Pick
The Bucs will be playing at home, but home field advantage has not been worth much this season. The Bucs will not be playing in front of a full stadium of fans and not all of fans will be cheering for the Bucs. There may be a little bit of value on Tampa plus the points, but the line is so small that it is hard to see Tampa covering the spread without winning the game. I think the better choice is to play the total. Kansas City’s offense has been virtually unstoppable and Tampa’s defense isn’t anything special. The Bucs offense has been rolling of late, scoring at least 30 points in each of their last six games. I think this game will be a shootout that goes over the total.
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