After managing just one winning record in the last nine years and logging a 7-9 SU record a season ago, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be competing in Super Bowl LV. That dramatic change in production had everything to do with the signing of arguably the best to ever play the quarterback position in the offseason. Tom Brady will be making the 10th Super Bowl appearance of his illustrious career on February 7. He’ll also be out to earn ring No. 7 when he leads the Bucs into battle against Patrick Mahomes and the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs in the biggest game of the 2020-21 NFL betting season. On top of that, he will go down in history as the first quarterback to ever participate in the big game on his home turf with SB LV set to play out on the gridiron of Raymond James Stadium located in Tampa Bay, FL. Even before the Chiefs put the finishing touches on the Buffalo Bills in the AFC title game, betting lines for this must-see matchup were already posted and on the move at online sportsbooks. Let’s dig into the action in our first look at the Super Bowl LV odds.
Super Bowl LV Odds at Bookmaker.eu
Kansas City Chiefs -3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3
Total 56
Odds Analysis
Tom Brady is getting points; at home no less! Seriously, does it get any better than that? Though there’s no ill will, you know darn well the GOAT is going to want to show the world he can get it done without Bill Belichick by his side. Tampa Bay went off the betting board dogged by linemakers five times over the course of the regular season and playoffs. They went on to win three of those games outright. More importantly, they covered the closing number four times with those ATS triumphs coming against the Packers and Chiefs in the regular season and Saints and Packers in the postseason. Of the team’s five overall defeats, only two came by more than three points with each coming against New Orleans.
Regardless, Kansas City opened up as 3.5-point favorites with the total lined at 57.5; the highest in Super Bowl history with the other also being a game Brady was involved in. Remember the Patriots comeback win against the Falcons in LI? The total for that game closed at 57. Early betting reports find the Chiefs the clamored side of the public. Though a decided 77 percent of the early betting action has come in support of the defending champs, the number to beat has fallen to -3 with heavier juice attached to the Chiefs. It looks like respected sharp money accounts bought up as much of Tampa Bay +3.5 as possible. Kansas City clocking in at 2-8 ATS its last 10 games might have something to do with that. Though two of the best QBs in the league are squaring off against one another, the O/U has fallen a full point to 56 even though 72 percent of the early bet count expects points to hit the board. The sharp money strikes again!
How They Got Here
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Bucs logged an 11-5 SU regular season campaign that earned them the No. 5 seed in the NFC playoffs. That matched them up with the ill-equipped Washington Football Team in the Wild Card Round. Though Ron Rivera got a fantastic spot start from back-up QB Taylor Heinicke, the Buccaneers still earned the 31-23 win to advance into the Division Round where it got a third crack at a New Orleans Saints team that embarrassed them in both regular season meetings. The third time proved to be the charm with Tampa Bay scoring the 30-20 outright win and cover by way of the defense stepping up huge and forcing four huge turnovers that immediately led to points the other way. Tampa Bay would then go on to punch its second-ever ticket to the Super Bowl by going into Lambeau Field and holding on for dear life to thwart the Packers second half comeback bid. The Bucs won 31-26 as field goal underdogs to move to 2-1 ATS and the over to 2-1 in the playoffs.
Kansas City Chiefs: In tallying the best record in the league, the defending champs were afforded the AFC’s only bye. After seeing its 10-game win streak get snapped by the division rival Los Angeles Chargers in Week 17 due to resting key players on both sides of the ball, the team came out a bit rusty in its Division Round showdown with the upset hungry Cleveland Browns. But even with Patrick Mahomes knocked out of the game, the team answered the bell and took advantage of a very questionable call by Kevin Stefanski to punt the ball away late to secure the 22-17 win that saw them fail to cover the closing 7.5-point spread. The pointspread defeat saw KC fall to 1-8 ATS its last nine games which had many an NFL bettor lining up to back the Buffalo Bills in the AFC title game. That proved to be a grave mistake! Much like it did last year against the Houston Texans, Kansas City didn’t flinch after falling into an early 9-0 first quarter hole. The Chiefs would then go on to rattle off the game’s next 21 points to take back complete control of the contest. When the dust cleared, Andy Reid was once again seen hoisting the Lamar Hunt Trophy.
Recent Meeting
In leading the Chiefs to the decided 38-24 win and cover against the Bills, Mahomes joined the likes of Kurt Warner, Tom Brady and Russell Wilson as the only quarterbacks to reach the Super Bowl twice in their first four seasons. He’ll have to defeat Brady – much like he did in the regular season – to join him as the only quarterbacks to win the game twice during that stretch. It’s rare that teams square off against one another a second time in the Super Bowl, but not as rare as one of the teams partaking in the game getting to host it; an occurrence that’s never once occurred in the previous 54 Super Bowls. Even so, Kansas City will have a strong sense of familiarity after going into Raymond James Stadium and handing the Bucs a 27-24 defeat as 3.5-point favorites in a game that failed to surpass the closing 56-point O/U back in Week 12.
Though the final margin reads as KC pulling out a three point win, it dominated the proceedings right from the opening kick. The Chiefs would rattle off the game’s first 17 points, and it wasn’t until less than five minutes remained in the first half that Tampa Bay got on the board. Kansas City would take a commanding 27-10 lead with it into the fourth quarter when it would go scoreless and allow the Buccaneers to score a pair of window dressing touchdowns. Once the scoreboard read double zeroes, Kansas City outgained Tampa Bay 543-417, won the time of possession battle by nearly 14 minutes, won the turnover battle 2:1 and sacked Brady once. The chemistry between Mahomes and Tyreke Hill was on point that day with the duo hooking up 13 times for 269 yards and 3 TD. Mahomes would go on to throw for a whopping 462 yards and a perfect 3:0 TD/INT ratio. Brady went for 345 yards and a trio of touchdowns, but the GOAT was also picked off twice and accrued most of his yardage in garbage time. The teams only combined for 33 rushing attempts though the Bucs were forced to abandon their ground attack almost immediately. A total of 90 passes were thrown in regulation, so it’s pretty safe to assume that two of the game’s best will produce another air assault in the rematch.
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