With an added week in between conference championships and NFL Super Bowl LVIII we have more time to handicap picks and digest the massive prop bet menu coming our way. One of the biggest props in terms of tickets and handle is game MVP and there’s a good reason why quarterbacks are always the favored players. Over the previous 57 Super Bowls a QB has won the award 32 times, that’s over 56 percent.
Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes is one of a handful of players with multiple Super Bowl MVPs, including last year when he threw three scoring passes in a 38-35 win over Philadelphia. And that’s exactly why players on the offensive side have combined for 47 trophies. Picking an MVP is all about numbers and defenders typically don’t put up enough because they aren’t touching the ball every play. With another trophy Mahomes joins Tom Brady (5) and Joe Montana (3) as the only players with more than two MVPs. There are a bunch of playmakers on the field, though, leaving several value options available.
Super Bowl LVIII Odds
Kansas City Chiefs +2
San Francisco 49ers -2
Over/Under 47
Money Line: Chiefs +119, 49ers -135
Super Bowl LVIII MVP Odds
Patrick Mahomes +140
Brock Purdy +200
Christian McCaffrey +450
Travis Kelce +1400
Deebo Samuel +2200
Isaiah Pacheco +2500
Rashee Rice +5000
Brandon Aiyuk +6600
George Kittle +6600
Chris Jones +7500
Nick Bosa +8000
Fred Warner +15000
George Karlaftis +15000
L'jarius Sneed +15000
Marques Valdez-Scantling +20000
Willie Gay +20000
It’s common to see the starting quarterbacks listed with the shortest odds. The favorite Mahomes won his first Super Bowl MVP after the 2019 season when he threw a pair of scoring passes with an additional rushing score leading the Chiefs to a come from behind win over the 49ers. And Mahomes has been good against SF winning all three of his starts completing more than 66 percent of his passes for 1,023 and eight touchdowns with the Chiefs averaging nearly 38 points in those games.
Some would consider 2023 a down year for the Chiefs since they finished the regular season ninth in total yards and 15th in scoring. Mahomes set the bar high but did his best to get over it despite a shaky group of receivers that had problems catching passes. He threw for 4.183 yards and 27 TDs. Looking at the regular season numbers Purdy actually was better than Mahomes throwing for 4,280 yards and 31 TDs in almost 100 fewer pass attempts. It isn’t surprising the Niners had the most efficient passing attack in the NFL.
For someone other than a quarterback to win the award, they will have to have a big game. Cooper Kupp won it two years ago with two TD receptions, including the game-winner in the final minutes. Kupp was the eighth receiver to win the award giving that position the second most MVPs in Super Bowl history. And by the way you can wager on a position rather than an individual to win MVP.
San Francisco averaged the fewest pass attempts during the regular season putting a heavy emphasis on the ground game. That puts McCaffrey in a strong position to accumulate big numbers. McCaffrey led the NFL with 1,459 rushing yards and 2,023 combined yards while tying for the lead with 21 total touchdowns. He rushed for two TDs in each of the Niners first two playoff games. No tight end has ever won the award but if anyone can do it Travis Kelce can. Mahomes’ favorite target had 93 receptions, 984 yards and five TDs during the season. He’s been more of a threat in the playoffs with 23 catches, 262 yards and three scores. The Niners have a good one as well in George Kittle.
A few defenders have won the award, the last being Denver’s Von Miller in Super Bowl 50 when he collected 2.5 sacks, two forced fumbles and six tackles. Typically defenders don’t put up enough tangible stats to make them worthy of the honor. Both teams were stingy defensively this season with the Chiefs holding Miami without an offensive touchdown in the wild card round and silencing Lamar Jackson and the Ravens in the AFC Championship. There could be value in KC’s Chris Jones and SF’s Nick Bosa, who each recorded 10.5 sacks during the year, if they can get into their opponent’s backfield.
In order to cash a winning ticket on this bet you first have to get the winning team right. Only once in Super Bowl history has the MVP come from the losing team, and that was way back in 1971 when Dallas linebacker Chuck Howley earned the honor with a pair of interceptions and a fumble recovery.
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