The Kansas City Chiefs earned the right to defend their NFL title winning their last two playoff games as road underdogs to reach the Super Bowl for a second straight season and for the fourth time in the last five years. One of their previous three appearances was against the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LIV, which the Chiefs won 31-20. The No. 3 seed in the AFC, the Chiefs beat No. 2 Buffalo in the Divisional Round to reach the AFC Championship for the sixth year in a row where they beat top-seeded Baltimore, 17-10.
The third time was apparently the charm for the 49ers, who reached the Super Bowl for the eighth time in franchise history with a historic comeback win over the Detroit Lions in the NFC Championship game. Trailing 24-7 at halftime, the Niners scored 27 unanswered points to open the second half overcoming the largest halftime deficit in conference championship game history. The Niners blew a fourth quarter lead to the Rams two years ago and were annihilated by the Eagles in last season’s NFC Championship when Brock Purdy sustained an elbow injury and backup Josh Johnson was forced to leave with a concussion. The Niners opened as a slight 2-point favorite in what will be the 16th all time meeting between the clubs.
Super Bowl LVIII will take place on Sunday, February 11, 2024 at 6:30 p.m. ET at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, NV and will be televised on CBS.
Super Bowl LVIII Odds
Kansas City Chiefs +2
San Francisco 49ers -2
Over/Under 47
Money Line: Chiefs +119, 49ers -135
Kansas City took a different route but the destination was the same. The Chiefs ended up as the third-seed in the AFC meaning they would have to play on the road if the higher seeds advanced, which they did. For the first time since Patrick Mahomes became the full-time starter the Chiefs played a road playoff game, not including neutral-site Super Bowls, beating Buffalo 27-24 in the Divisional Round.
Getting to this point wasn’t easy, and it shouldn’t be, but both clubs persevered through trying circumstances. The Niners had to come from behind in their games overcoming a 7-point fourth-quarter deficit to beat Green Bay, 24-21, in the Divisional Round. That was nothing compared to what they did in the NFC title game. Favored by more than a touchdown in each game, the Niners failed to earn a payout and are winless against the spread in their last three matchups and in four of their last five games going back to the end of the regular season.
It’s not easy to win on the road in the playoffs, but the Chiefs did that upsetting the top two seeds in the AFC in the last two rounds. And they did it with a defensive unit that’s been inspiring all season. During the regular season KC boasted the second-best total defense and scoring defense behind only Cleveland in the former and Baltimore in the latter. The group didn’t allow a touchdown to Miami in the Wild Card game silencing Tua Tagovailoa. They also did a number on Lamar Jackson and the Ravens silencing the NFL’s best ground game. The Ravens led the NFL in rushing during the season averaging over 156 yards but were held to only 81 by the Chiefs.
After losing the NFC Championship game the previous two seasons, the Niners busted through to make their eighth trip to the Super Bowl. Their vaunted defense, however, nearly let them down. SF was third against the run during the regular season but allowed 136 yards on the ground to Green Bay and 182 yards to Detroit.
Mahomes is undefeated in three career starts against the 49ers putting up at least 31 points in every game. The Chiefs are also 3-0 ATS in those outings. Mahomes tossed a pair of fourth quarter touchdown passes helping the Chiefs overcome a 10-point fourth quarter deficit to win Super Bowl LIV 31-20. In the most recent meeting during the 2022 season, Mahomes had 423 yards passing and three more TDs as the Chiefs won on the road 44-23. KC is 5-1 SU and ATS in the last six encounters.
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