Since winning but failing to cover way back in Week 1 against the Dallas Cowboys, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have rattled off four straight wins and pointspread covers at home versus the Falcons, Dolphins, Bears and Giants. They won those games by an average of 26.5 points while laying 11.6 points per game on average. As Darth Vader would say, “Impressive, most impressive!” That win streak will however be put to the test in Week 14 when it welcomes a pissed off bunch of Buffalo Bills into Raymond James Stadium for a potential Super Bowl LVI preview. Josh Allen and his mates just dropped a bitter 14-10 battle to the New England Patriots to lose grasp of the top seed in the division. They have the passing attack that can take full advantage of a leaky Bucs secondary, but this will be the first game played - with Mother Nature not wreaking havoc – without the services of Tre’Davious White. I firmly expect Tom Brady and the Buccaneers potent aerial attack to get theirs through the air as well. As such, I believe the O/U for this matchup is still way too low regardless of it being the highest of the slate at online sportsbooks. Look for points to hit the board in bunches, and for each team to comfortably surpass its respective team total because of it.
Watch this regular season Week 14 matchup on Sunday, December 12, 2021, at 4:25 p.m. ET from Raymond James Stadium on CBS.
NFL Odds at Bookmaker.eu
Buffalo Bills +3.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3.5
Total 53
Odds Analysis
The look-ahead lines had the host Buccaneers laying 3-points and the total set at 53.5. Linemakers were forced to move the point spread up a half point to -3.5 due to 62 percent of the bets and only 56 percent of the money forcing their hand. It looks like some respected sharp accounts really like the GOAT in this matchup with less than 60 percent of the money forcing the line move off a key number. Though 86 percent of the action and 98 percent of the handle has aligned with points being scored, the O/U has dropped half a point to 53 with heavier -116 juice attached to the over. Buffalo has played to low scorers in two of its last three road games, while Tampa Bay has cashed under tickets in two straight as hosts. Maybe that has something to do with the interesting reverse line movement.
Player Prop Targets
The disgust on Josh Allen’s face was palpable throughout Monday night’s joust with the Patriots. Though he did his best to get catchable balls into his receiver’s hands, it just wasn’t meant to be. Numerous drops flat out killed his overall production; along with 30+ mph winds. The best remedy will be a Buccaneers pass defense that’s been ripped for nearly 250 passing yards per game. It’s also averaged allowing 1.8 passing touchdowns per game, but has gotten a reprieve in recent weeks running up against the impotent offenses of the Falcons, Giants, Washington Football Team, Saints and Bears. It’s high time the negative regression fairies paid the Bucs a visit, and Allen is just the guy to hang a crooked number on their heads. As bad Buffalo’s running game has been paired with Tampa Bay likely to get theirs, I’ll be targeting Allen’s passing yards and pass attempts props. Search out the best number for each and slam the over!
Free ATS Pick
I’m extremely bullish on both of these offenses heading into this matchup. The only thing that will stop both from running up some impressive point totals is Mother Nature since neither defense is likely to pull out many stops through four quarters. As it stands right now, it’s going to be a beautiful 78 degree cloudy day with some mild winds. The track will be dry. The winds won’t be howling. What more can you ask for in a matchup that pits Josh Allen against Tom Brady with all pertinent offensive playmakers healthy and ready to go? The Bills No. 1 ranked pass defense minus its best contributor is yet to run up against a passing attack as locked in as the one Tampa will bring to the field on Sunday. On the flipside, the Buccaneers haven’t been able to limit below average passing games. It all adds up to points hitting the board with reckless abandon, so hit the over for the full game as well as both team totals and enjoy the fireworks show!
NFL Pick: Bills 40, Buccaneers 38
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