The New Orleans Saints’ run of four straight NFC South titles can come to an end on Sunday Night Football with a loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bucs are seeking their first division championship since 2007 while trying to keep pace for the top spot in the NFC. Tampa won and covered a fourth consecutive game holding off Buffalo in overtime, 33-27, in a thrilling game on Sunday. The Saints can still win the division, but they need a lot of help. They are more concerned about reaching the playoffs with their chances improving thanks to a victory over the Jets last week that stopped a five-game losing streak. The Bucs have dropped the last six regular season meetings in the series, but they are a 10.5-point favorite on the NFL betting line.
This regular season Week 15 matchup will take place on Sunday, December 19, 2021 at 8:20 p.m. ET at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, FL and will be televised on NBC.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
New Orleans Saints +10.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -10.5
Total 46.5
Odds Analysis
The Bucs hit the board laying 11.5-points with that number wagered down to Tampa -10.5 in early betting action. Several factors are likely for the public backing the Saints. New Orleans had a good showing in last week’s 30-9 romp over the Jets to cover the 4.5-point line. The Saints had dropped their previous five games and were on the verge of falling out of the postseason race. They are right back in the thick of it though tied with four other teams at 6-7. The Bucs nearly let a big lead slip away before holding off the Bills 33-27 in overtime. Tampa won and covered its previous four games. The Bucs are a perfect 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS at home this season.
Player to Watch
Few teams have put the shackles on Brady like the Saints have and for that reason the GOAT is the player to watch. Brady is 0-3 in regular season games against New Orleans since joining the Bucs with two of his worst games last season against the division foe. Brady completed 61 percent of his passes for 448 yards in both regular season games last season. The stunning part was that he tossed five interceptions in those games and Tampa was outscored 72-26. Brady’s only game without a TD pass came against the Saints in a 38-3 setback in Week 9. He made up for it by tossing three picks.
Brady had better numbers when the teams met at the end of October. He completed 70 percent of his throws for 375 yards and four touchdowns. However, he was intercepted twice giving the Saints a total of seven picks in three games, two of which were returned for touchdowns. In his other 19 regular season games since joining the Bucs Brady has 15 interceptions. He got some redemption in last season’s playoffs leading the Bucs to a 30-20 win, though he was far from Brady-like. He completed just 54.5 percent of his passes for 199 yards, but he didn’t turn the football over. One bad game is a fluke, but three is a trend and the Saints can hang with a few turnovers.
Key Stat
The Saints are tied with four other teams for the final playoff spot in the NFC, though right now tie-breakers have them on the outside. A five-game losing streak impacted their chances of reaching the postseason, but the offense got healthy last week with the return of Alvin Kamara to the lineup. I guess it wasn’t a coincidence that New Orleans lost all four games when Kamara was sidelined since he’s such an impactful player. And his presence in the backfield made Taysom Hill even more dangerous. With Kamara carrying the ball 27 times for 120 yards and Hill adding 73 yards on 11 attempts, the Saints amassed 203 rushing yards in their 30-9 win over the Jets. They are 6-3 SU when Kamara plays and average a touchdown more per game on the scoreboard. Tampa allowed Buffalo’s Josh Allen to rush for 109 yards last week with the Bills totaling 173 yards and averaging over nine-yards per carry. Running the football successfully will allow the Saints to stay close in this game.
Free ATS Pick
Use caution when betting against Brady. The Bucs lead the NFL in yards and points and have the best passing attack in the league. They’re also 5-2 ATS when favored by double digits. I do feel like the Saints are undervalued, though. They have a strong defense and we saw their issues against an agile quarterback last week. With Kamara back the run game opens up and as long as the Saints don’t hurt themselves with turnovers, I like them covering with 10.5 points in my pocket.
NFL Pick: New Orleans Saints +10.5 / OVER 46.5
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