The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have not lost three consecutive games since Tom Brady joined the franchise. They’ll take a two-game losing streak into their Week 11 Monday Night Football tilt with the New York Giants. Brady has been part of the problem throwing a pair of picks in each of the two losses during the skid and the offense soured matching a season-low point total in last week’s 29-19 loss to Washington. Brady rarely puts two bad games together and three in a row is unheard of. Thus the defending champs are laying 10.5-points on the NFL betting line.
This regular season Week 11 matchup will take place on Monday, November 22, 2021 at 8:15 p.m. ET at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, FL and will be televised on ESPN.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
New York Giants +10.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -10.5
Total 50
Odds Analysis
Recent results have the betting public leaning toward the Giants in this matchup. Tampa hit the board as a 12.5-point favorite with action on the visitors bringing that number down to Tampa -10.5 as of this writing. With New York expecting to get some reinforcements following an off week, we could see the line fall even more. As of now, though, it’s the highest on the Week 11 board. If the line holds it’ll be the sixth time the Bucs are laying double-digits. They lost outright as a 10-point favorite last week in Washington putting them at 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS when favored by 10 or more points. The Giants are playing their best football of the season with wins in two of their last three games. They held all three opponents to 20 points or less going 3-0 ATS with the UNDER cashing every time.
Player to Watch
Daniel Jones is obviously a key figure for the Giants. But I have to keep an eye on Brady in this game to see how he responds after getting called out by Bruce Arians last week. Brady has more than half of his season interceptions in the last two games and not surprisingly the Bucs lost them both. He was picked on consecutive first quarter possessions by the WFT, just the third time in his career he tossed two first half interceptions, and the Bucs found themselves trailing 13-0.
“It has nothing to do with the receivers. It was him,” Arians said of his quarterback. Now, Brady is a big boy and he’s been around long enough to know what’s what. Obviously upset by his performance, Brady spent little time in his post-game presser. Despite the recent woes, Brady is having a spectacular season leading the NFL’s top ranked passing attack. He’s third in passing yards with 2,870 only because he played one fewer game than Matthew Stafford and Patrick Mahomes. He leads the NFL with 27 touchdown passes and has the third-best passer rating at 106.1. Also, expect Mike Evans to be more involved this week making him a nice pick in a prop. Evans was targeted only three times last week and has just four catches in the last two games.
Key Stat
There’s a reason why Graham Gano’s 19 made field goals are the second-most in the NFL. The Giants continually bog down in the red zone leaving their kicker to salvage three points. They’ve converted only 11 of their 25 red zone trips into touchdowns to rank last in the NFL in red zone percentage. Few trips inside the opponents 20-yard line and fewer touchdowns have the Giants averaging just 19.9 points to rank 24th in the NFL. The Giants scored more than 20 points in a game only four times, but they’ve done it twice in their last three outings to beat Carolina and Las Vegas. Still the UNDER is 3-0 in the last three games and 5-3-1 on the season.
Free ATS Pick
The Giants are expected to have a few key offensive players back, which should bolster their chances of scoring more points and hanging in the game. But facing a future Hall of Famer after two poor outings isn’t an ideal situation for the Giants. And the Bucs have been a good play at home going 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS this season. Going back to last season and including their Super Bowl victory at Raymond James Stadium, Tampa has won seven straight at home while going a robust 6-1 ATS.
NFL Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -10.5 / OVER 50
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