After an 0-2 start, many pundits began to doubt the Tennessee Titans. Mike Vrabel and the Titans proved the naysayers wrong though and look set to win another AFC South title after winning six of their last seven games. Their lone loss in that stretch was an overtime loss on the road against Kansas City two weeks ago, so the Green Bay Packers will have their hands full on Thursday Night Football.
The Green Bay Packers kept their playoff hopes alive with a big win over the Dallas Cowboys last week. Now, they will face another top team in the Tennessee Titans on Thursday Night Football to start Week 11. These teams will meet at historic Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin on Thursday, November 17, 2022, at 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video.
NFL Week 11 Betting Odds
Tennessee Titans +3
Green Bay Packers -3
Total 41.5
Money Line: Titans +140, Packers -160
Odds Analysis
Green Bay opened as a small 1.5-point favorite in this game per the opening NFL betting odds, and the line has since risen to 2.5 points as of Monday morning. The total has held strong at 40.5 points as snow could be a factor on Thursday night.
Tennessee Titans
Ryan Tannehill missed two straight games with an ankle injury before making his return last week against Denver. Tannehill wasn’t extremely accurate in the win over the Broncos, completing 19 of 36 passes for 255 yards with two touchdowns, but he was a marked improvement over rookie Malik Willis. First-round pick Treylon Burks also made his first start in over a month after suffering an injury, so this passing attack should be in better shape.
As always though, the key to this offense is Derrick Henry. Tennessee’s standout running back averaged less than 3.0 YPC last week against Denver’s stout run defense, but he remains one of the top rushers in the league with 923 yards and nine touchdowns while averaging 4.6 YPC. Henry ranks just behind Saquon Barkley in terms of the NFL’s rushing leaders and should move into first place again after Thursday night.
Tennessee does an excellent job of stopping the run. The Titans are allowing just 3.9 YPC, and opponents are running for a scant 85.1 YPG against this front seven. Jeffery Simmons has been excellent and is tied for second on the team with 5.5 sacks, while Denico Autry has seven sacks. Kevin Byard remains one of the best safeties in the league too.
Situational defense has been hit or miss for the Titans though. Tennessee ranks first in third down defense, allowing opponents to convert just 27.9% of their chances. However, they are dead last in fourth down defense with teams picking up a whopping 82.4% of those opportunities.
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Green Bay Packers
Aaron Rodgers and the Packers snapped a five-game losing streak with Sunday’s overtime win over the Dallas Cowboys. Green Bay bounced back from a 14-point fourth quarter deficit to get the victory as second-round pick Christian Watson had a breakout performance with four receptions for 107 yards and three touchdowns.
We saw Green Bay reemphasize the ground game in last week’s win over Dallas. Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon combined to carry the ball 37 times for 203 yards and a touchdown, helping ease some of the pressure on Aaron Rodgers. That might be an issue this week though as Tennessee has been much better against the run.
The Packers are dealing with some key injuries on defense as Rashan Gary and Eric Stokes are on injured reserve, and De’Vondre Campbell missed last week’s game against Dallas due to injury. They have one of the worst run defenses in the league, so Derrick Henry could have a lot of success on a short week.
Titans at Packers Free Pick
This is a great spot to back Tennessee. The Titans match up well with the Packers, and they can win in this environment. Henry should have over 100 rushing yards in a win for the visitors.
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