How many touchdown passes do you think Tom Brady will throw this season? You can bet on Brady passing props at BookMaker for the 2021 season. Brady is 44-years old but he proved last season that he can still play at an extremely high level, as he threw for 4,633 yards and 40 touchdowns. Will there be a regression for Brady this season or will he continue to put up big numbers? Let’s look at Tom Brady props and predictions.
Tom Brady Regular Season Passing Touchdowns
38.5 over +115
38.5 under -145
Brady threw 40 TD passes last season and now he gets an extra game if he plays in all 17 games this season. There is really no reason to expect a lot of regression from the Bucs this season, as they have all of their starters back. Brady has a lot of good red zone threats led by Rob Gronkowski.
The concern if you are going to bet the over is that Brady had 6.6% of his passes end up going for touchdowns. That is the highest percentage for Brady since the 2010 season. He had 24 TD passes that went for 10 yards or less. He threw 14 TD passes of 5 yards or less. Those are a lot of short TD passes and it is easy to see a little bit of regression.
Brady is 44 years old and despite him looking like a player who is 10 years younger, regression is eventually going to happen. Brady is a great quarterback coming off a great season.
When you look at props you always have to consider value and there is no question the value on this prop is on the under.
Tom Brady Regular Season Total Passing Yards
4750.5 over +117
4750.5 under -154
Brady threw for 4,633 yards last season so if he matches last season’s production, he will go over this number of 4750.5 because all NFL teams will be playing 17 games this season instead of 16. Brady has been extremely durable in his career, but there is no question that as you get older, your body isn’t as strong. Brady has a very talented group of receivers around him and head coach Bruce Arians showed last season that he wants to throw the ball a lot.
Oftentimes when a team wins a Super Bowl you can expect some sort of a letdown, but the Bucs brought back all 22 starters from last season. Brady continues to defy his age and looks great. He proved last season that he can still make all the throws and every indication entering the 2021 season is that nothing has changed. Eventually age will take over and Brady will suffer a regression, but do you really want to bet on it happening this season?
Tom Brady Prop Predictions
Let me first say that you go against Tom Brady at your own peril. He has continually defied the experts and played at a high level for a long time. He is very capable of having another great season, even at the age of 44. Having said that, there are two big concerns for me when betting Brady props over the total. First, he doesn’t have the same motivation he had last season.
A year ago, Brady wanted to prove that he was the main reason the Patriots won so many Super Bowls and not Bill Belichick. Brady pretty much did just that as the Bucs won the Super Bowl. Brady is always motivated, but last year he played with a chip on his shoulder.
Second, age is eventually going to catch up to Brady. I don’t know if it happens before he retires or not, but age will become a factor. The Tom Brady prop numbers are really high and it won’t take much regression for Brady to go under both of these props. I would also add that the value is on the under in both of these props and that makes me leery of betting either of them.
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