One of the most popular quarterback props heading into the 2019 NFL season involves New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady. There is not much debate that Brady is the GOAT and there is no question that Brady and the Patriots could win yet another Super Bowl this season. But what the Patriots do is not the question we are looking at, but we are looking at what Brady will do in terms of passing yards and touchdowns thrown. Brady is 42-years old and despite his great health routine, age catches up with everyone. Will 2019 be the year that Brady’s skills suffer a big decline? Bettors seem to think so, as there has been a lot of action on the under on one of these props. Let’s look at the odds and a recommendation.
Tom Brady Total Passing Yards
4,150.5 Yards (Under -125)
Tom Brady Total TD Passes
30.5 (Under -200)
Before we break down both of these props, it is important to know exactly how many yards Brady has thrown for in the past few years and how many TD passes he has had. Here are the numbers for Brady since 2012.
Year Yards TDs
2018 4,355 29
2017 4,577 32
2016 3,554 28
2015 4,770 36
2014 4,109 33
2013 4,343 25
2012 4,827 34
The numbers for Brady have been very consistent through the years with only 2016 being a somewhat down season for Brady. The numbers for Brady in 2018 had him throwing for over 4,300 yards, but his TD numbers were down a little bit. The TD number for Brady may have been set too high for this season, as Brady has topped 30 TDs in a season in just one of the last three years.
It should be noted that Brady attempted just 570 passes last season and that number was his fewest since 2010. Brady is still great, but his age is starting to show He was not nearly as good on the long ball last season, as he hit just 29.8% on attempts longer than 20 yards and he averaged just 10.5 yards per attempt last season. The Patriots have become more of a rushing team in recent seasons and that should be the case again in 2019. Brady will also not have Rob Gronkowski this season and he also doesn’t have Chris Hogan. He also won’t have Josh Gordon unless Gordon is reinstated and Ben Watson is suspended for the first four games. New England does have Julian Edelman and Demaryius Thomas, but overall, the receiving corps of New England is weaker this season.
Keep in mind that Brady threw multiple touchdown passes in just three of his last 12 games a year ago. It is easy to see why bettors are taking the TD passes prop under the total.
2019 New England Patriots Schedule
Sep 8 Pittsburgh
Sep 15 at Miami
Sep 22 NY Jets
Sep 29 at Buffalo
Oct 6 at Washington
Oct 10 NY Giants
Oct 21 at NY Jets
Oct 27 Cleveland
Nov 3 at Baltimore
BYE
Nov 17 at Philadelphia
Nov 24 Dallas
Dec 1 at Houston
Dec 8 Kansas City
Dec 15 at Cincinnati
Dec 22 Buffalo
Dec 29 Miami
The schedule for New England is really pretty favorable, but the question isn’t whether or not the Patriots will win games, but how much Brady will throw. If last season is any indication, the Patriots are going to throw less with Brady. There are also not a lot of games on the schedule that are expected to be high scoring shootouts.
Recommendation
I think there is only one way to go on the Brady props and that is under the total. Perhaps Brady can get close to the yardage total, but I agree with the wise guys on the TD total, as I just can’t see Brady getting to 30 touchdown passes this season and he needs to get to 31 to go over the total of 30.5. He didn’t even hit that number last season and it is hard to see how he is better this season with a weakened receiving corps and at age 42.
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